Juan Martin Del Potro takes on Roger Federer in the ATP World Tour Finals on Saturday afternoon and after a couple of winners yesterday Sean Calvert likes the chances of the Argentine to qualify for the semi finals...
"I feel that Del Potro's best is not only better than Federer's these days but he's the more likely to produce it on the day and keep his level there..."
Stanislas Wawrinka just about managed to keep his nerves under control and provided a winning bet for this column on Friday, with a three set win over David Ferrer.
The Swiss number two, who may well become the Swiss number one after this tournament, depending upon how Roger Federer fares for the remainder of his time in London, had to do things the hard way again after choking when serving out set one on Friday.
Having led 5-2, Wawrinka lost the opener on a tie break, but came back strongly to level before moving away in the decider to record a 6-1 win and a place in the semi finals in his first year-end tournament.
In the other round robin match on Friday, Rafa Nadal defeated Tomas Berdych in three sets to bring home my pre-tournament recommended bet of Rafa to win his group.
Roger Federer's bid to defend ranking points from making the final here last year continues in a popcorn tennis match-up with Juan Martin Del Potro on Saturday afternoon at 2pm.
And it's a winner takes all clash between the two former US Open champions, with the victor joining Novak Djokovic in the semi finals and the loser going home.
So, it's all on the line in this 20th meeting between Fed and Delpo, with the big Argentine having won three of their last four meetings including at this round robin stage here 12 months ago.
It's fairly clear that the two players have gone in opposite directions since then form-wise, with Del Potro enjoying his best season since his 2009 breakthrough on the Grand Slam stage and Federer struggling against some pretty mediocre opposition.
Both players have beaten Richard Gasquet and lost to Novak Djokovic in three sets, but I feel that Del Potro's best is not only better than Federer's these days but he's the more likely to produce it on the day and keep his level there.
Federer's level is very much up and down these days, but that's to be expected at the latter end of his career and with it all on the line this could well be another close one, as their last six meetings have all been.
This will be the pair's third meeting in the space of three tournaments, having locked horns in Basel and Bercy and those backing the overs will be pretty confident with the last half dozen meetings all going way past the total games mark.
That mark this time is set quite high at 23.5 games as a consequence and a better bet might be to back the three sets in 'number of sets' at around 2.285/4.
Delpo looks like he'll start at slight favourite at around the 1.9210/11 mark and he has a 48-10 winning record as favourite this season and a 14-2 record as favourite on indoor hard in 2013.
Federer meanwhile has played seven matches as underdog this campaign and won just the one, which was the victory over Del Potro in Bercy last week.
The Tower of Tandil was surely fatigued that day after an unwise amount of matches post-New York and I expect we'll see the best of him today.
If he plays all match like he did in the second set against Djokovic he'll win this fairly comfortably, but he's a notoriously slow starter and like an old car he seems to take a while to warm up to top speed.
I like the 1.9210/11 about Del Potro here and for a more expansive wager their history and Delpo's tendency to start slowly leads me to the 4.47/2 about him winning this 2-1.
Back Del Potro to beat Federer at 1.9210/11
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Back Del Potro to beat Federer 2-1 at 4.47/2
ATP P&L 2013
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