ATP World Tour Finals Betting: Can Ferrer finally defeat Federer?

Will Federer be applauding another victory over Ferrer today?

In-form David Ferrer takes on Roger Federer for the 14th time today and is still searching for his first win over the Swiss. Will it be today? Sean Calvert talks us through the best bets.

"Ferrer has kept it tight in the opener against the Swiss in four of their last five meetings and he's in the sort of form to do so again today.."

Back over 9.5 games in set one at 1.84/5

Wednesday at the O2 proved to be a frustrating one for outright match odds punters, as Andy Murray was beaten by Novak Djokovic after a great start.

The Scot, sporting another seriously tight-fitting kit, this time in yellow and white, was fully in control of the match after outplaying Djokovic in the opening set and made for a good trade from his starting point of 2.166/5.

But he lost concentration and allowed the Serb back in it before a third set rally saw him two points from winning the match, however Nole wasn't to be denied in the end. 

Thursday sees Group B's second helping of round robin matches take centre stage with Roger Federer taking on David Ferrer for the 14th time at tour level and the Spaniard is yet to win a single one

Confidence wise, Ferrer will surely not have a better shot at grabbing a win over his nemesis than today, but the concern is fatigue after two long weeks on tour plus an energy sapping three-setter against Juan Martin Del Potro on Tuesday night.

If Ferrer has anything left in the tank he is the sort of form to give the Swiss a scare, but the match-up is clearly an awful one for the Spaniard. 

He can take heart from Nikolay Davydenko breaking a 12 match losing streak against Federer here in 2009 when the odds were roughly the same as the 1.241/4 and 5.04/1 that they are today, so it's not impossible. Fernando Gonzalez also did it at the year-end event in China a couple of years earlier too. 

After going 0-5 against top-10 players at the start of the year, Ferrer has won six of the last nine against them and four of the last five, but it's hard to have a huge amount of faith with that 0-13 record against Federer.

The Swiss defends too well indoors against Ferrer and on hard, indoor hard and carpet Federer has won 17 of the 18 sets they've played against each other, so there's little to really inspire me to back against the world number two today in the match odds market.

But confidence is a huge thing on a tennis court and for me the value in this one lies in the first set market - a set where Ferrer will be giving it his absolute all and over 9.5 games at around 1.84/5 looks a good bet to me.

I get the feeling that if Federer wins the first set then the effects of the last few weeks will suddenly catch up with Ferrer, but he's kept it tight in the opener against the Swiss in four of their last five meetings and he's in the sort of form to do so again today.

Recommended Bet
Back over 9.5 games in set one at 1.84/5

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