ATP World Tour Finals Betting: Djokovic to defeat fatigued Murray in O2 showdown

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Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray clash for the 35th time on Sunday at London's O2 Arena in a match with a lot riding on it. Sean Calvert is back with the best bets at the World Tour Finals...

"The attritional style of matches between these two tends to suggest that the fitter man will eventually win, hence the price on Novak, and the 2-0 to the Serb looks the most likely outcome today..."

Back Djokovic to win 2-0 at [2.3]

It's been a hellish end of season for me - even more so than normal at this stage of the season - and Andy Murray continued the misery on Saturday by coming up with the longest three setter since records began.

In another contest low on quality Murray just scraped past Milos Raonic 9-7 in the final set breaker after three hours and 38 minutes of toil, topping the three hours and 20 minutes he endured against Kei Nishikori.

We saw last night how the accumulated fatigue affected Nishikori and on Sunday Murray faces a fresh Novak Djokovic for the right to be called season-end world number one and World Tour Finals champion.

In the circumstances it looks a tall order and I'd expect Murray's brief tenure as world number one to come to an end here, which is good news for Murray fans as I've got pretty much everything wrong in Bercy and London so far.

Having to try and predict Murray matches at the best of times is tough, as we saw when he came out and played arguably his best ever match at the O2 right after the marathon against Nishikori and it does look like the price on Djokovic is a tad skinny.

Without the 'epic' Raonic match I'd have expected maybe [1.7] or so on Djokovic after his excellent performance against a fatigued Nishikori, so this [1.48] on the Serb is rather short.

This is the last match of the season for both mend and after putting in such a massive effort to get where he is it's hard to see even a very tired Murray not being able to summon the energy to make this a match early on.

As good as Murray was against Stan Wawrinka he was poor against Raonic, Nishikori and for the most part Marin Cilic too, but he knows he'll need to be on it right away against Djokovic and surely the Scot needs the opening set.

He's won only two of his last 15 against Djokovic, one of the four this year, and he's 0-19 against Djokovic having lost the opening set, so we could say Murray must win the opener.

The attritional style of matches between these two tends to suggest that the fitter man will eventually win, hence the price on Novak, and the 2-0 to the Serb looks the most likely outcome today at around the [2.30] mark.

Murray's yet to beat Djokovic on indoor hard in four tries and has held serve only 71.1% of the time against the Serb in these conditions, but perhaps a more interesting stat is that on all hard courts eight of their last 15 matches have taken at least 12 games in set one to decide.

The last three have ended 6-1, 6-1 and 6-2 to Djokovic, but unless Murray really is cooked I don't see that happening today and for my last wager of the season I'm going to chance the huge [15.0] about Djokovic 7-5 in set one.

With so much at stake there'll be some nerves about and the quality may not be the best again, but that price looks big on a tight opener with the Serb likely to be the stronger player today.

Djokovic has had that steely look back in the last few days and the quality of his tennis has been back to how it was earlier in the season, so this looks one too far for Murray today.

Recommended Bets

Back Djokovic to win 2-0 at [2.3]
Back Djokovic to win set one 7-5 at [15.0]

Tennis 2016 season P&L

Profit based on £10 stake per bet = £427.10

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