X Factor Week 3 Tips - Back Monica Michael to go
His astute powers of prediction weren't rewarded last week, but Jack Houghton thinks a Monica Michael elimination can see him profit this time around.
"It was no surprise to see Mason Noise in trouble as he was combating the dual-terror of singing early and singing badly..."
What Happened Last Week?
Another slightly frustrating week. I put up four as potential deportees, with three of them filling the bottom three spots. Unfortunately, despite the prescience, I didn't manage to choose the right recommendations, so still await the first profitable bet. It will come, though.
Of interest, perhaps, was the running order. It was no surprise to see Mason Noise in trouble as he was combating the dual-terror of singing early and singing badly. Seann Miley Moore, in contrast, got a relatively late spot, and yet his inability to connect with the voting public meant that even this wasn't enough to save him.
In the end, for reasons outlined here last week, it was Kiera who went first, which was no great surprise.
Who Are The Likely Winners?
I still like her, but I'm yet to be entirely convinced by the short-odds Louisa Johnson (6/5). Her rendition of Billie Jean wasn't even one of the best three or four performances on the night, and she may well struggle to progress. Like Lauren Platt last year, she might not get any better than she was during the audition process. Or maybe she will? I just don't want to have to take 6/5 before finding out.
The most likely winners last week looked to be one of Che Chesterman (11/4), Lauren Murray (7/1) or Reggie N Bollie (10/1). I only wished I'd gone with my instincts and backed the latter prior to the first show at 66/1.
What Will Happen This Week?
Another double elimination in Movie Week with the advertised highlight a Reggie N Bollie rendition of Who Let The Dogs Out? By my reckoning that will leave three weeks to get rid of four more contestants, meaning the weaker acts are being thinned out rapidly in this year's truncated series.
Who's For The Chop?
Given he was in the sing-off last week, the obvious choice is Mason Noise (5/2 in Fifth Elimination Market); however, I note he is down to sing Men In Black - presumably in an attempt to show his whimsical and capricious side; countering the earnestness and tantrums of previous shows - and can't help thinking that a later billing in the show, coupled with that song choice, might be enough to save him.
Monica Michael was woeful last week and is the rightful favourite to depart first this time around. I'll be taking the 15/8.
Profit / Loss on Settled Bets: -3pts
Previously Recommended Bets:
2-points Anton Stephans at 8/1 in Outright Winner Market - OPEN.
1-point 4th Impact at 11/2 in Outright Winner Market - OPEN.
1-point Che Chesterman at 11/2 in Outright Winner Market - OPEN.
1-point Alien Uncovered at 8/1 in Next Elimination Market - LOST.
1-point Monica Michael at 9/1 in Third Elimination Market - LOST.
1-point Mason Noise at 6/1 in Third Elimination Market - LOST.