Ryan Lawrie is the rightful favourite to go, writes Jack Houghton, but better value can be found in predicting a tough week for Emily Middlemas...
"A better bet is Emily Middlemas to be in the Bottom Two, and wouldn't it be a great story if Ryan and her - young loves - have to compete for survival in the sing-off?"
What Happened Last Week?
Producers dropped the Bottom Three vote-pit last week, so we won't know until the end of the series whether Emily Middlemas was close to being in the sing-off, or whether they were just teasing us. Either way, she's becoming increasingly dull and it's hard to see her making the final.
Early-pick Sam Lavery has missed the mark in recent weeks and it was no surprise to see her going, although justice might have insisted she stay at least a week longer than perennial Bottom-Three-er, Ryan Lawrie. Justice is a rare visitor to the X Factor, though.
Who Are The Likely Winners?
Saara Alto was surprisingly good. Despite singing first, which can often be the coffin-slot, she wasn't in the sing-off - something she's experienced three times previously - and her odds in the outright market have shortened accordingly: she's now down to around 12/113.0.
Against the likely finalists of Matt Terry, 5 After Midnight and Honey G, however, the odds on Saara look on the short side. She might have been rewarded by voters for a good performance but there is no guarantee of her sustaining that through to the final stages.
What Will Happen This Week?
It's Movie Week, a suitably wide-open genre that will disadvantage no one. Saara Alto is apparently singing something from Titanic - which could be deathly boring - and Ryan Lawrie is down to perform Jailhouse Rock, which can only be cheesily outdated.
Who's For The Chop?
It no surprise that Ryan is favourite for eviction at around 1/21.50, because he's likely to be in the Bottom Two, and, if he is, it's hard to see who the judges would evict before him. That's a risky bet at the odds, though. He clearly has a fan base, otherwise he wouldn't have survived this long, and if he is allowed to sing last, and performs well, he could yet survive another week.
A better bet is Emily Middlemas at 5/42.30 to be in the Bottom Two. I'm convinced her support is waning. Also, wouldn't it be a great story if Ryan and her - young loves - have to compete for survival in the sing-off?
1-point back Emily Middlemas at 5/42.30 to be in Bottom Two
Profit / Loss: +0.7 points
2-point back 5 After Midnight at 14.50 in Winner market - OPEN
5-point back 5 After Midnight at 5/16.20 in Winner market - OPEN
5-point back Matt Terry at 5/23.50 in Winner market - OPEN
5-point back Honey G at 15/28.40 in Winner market - OPEN
3-point back Samantha Lavery at 12.50 in Winner market - LOST
1-point back Relley C at 9/43.25 in 1st Elimination market - LOST
1-point back Saara Alto at 6/17.00 in 1st Elimination market - LOST
1-point back Freddy Parker at 11/53.20 in 2nd Elimination market - WON
1-point back Ryan Lawrie at 9/25.60 in 3rd Elimination market - LOST
1-point back Saara Aalto at 15/82.90 in 4th Elimination market - LOST
3-point back Four of Diamonds at 5/23.50 in 5th Elimination market - WON
2-point back Emily Middlemas at 15/116.00 in 6th Elimination Bottom Three market - VOID
2-point back Saara Alto at 5/23.50 in 6th Elimination market - LOST