Ryan Lawrie is the rightful favourite to go, writes Jack Houghton, but better value can be found in predicting a tough week for Emily Middlemas...
"A better bet is Emily Middlemas to be in the Bottom Two, and wouldn't it be a great story if Ryan and her - young loves - have to compete for survival in the sing-off?"
What Happened Last Week?
Producers dropped the Bottom Three vote-pit last week, so we won't know until the end of the series whether Emily Middlemas was close to being in the sing-off, or whether they were just teasing us. Either way, she's becoming increasingly dull and it's hard to see her making the final.
Early-pick Sam Lavery has missed the mark in recent weeks and it was no surprise to see her going, although justice might have insisted she stay at least a week longer than perennial Bottom-Three-er, Ryan Lawrie. Justice is a rare visitor to the X Factor, though.
Who Are The Likely Winners?
Saara Alto was surprisingly good. Despite singing first, which can often be the coffin-slot, she wasn't in the sing-off - something she's experienced three times previously - and her odds in the outright market have shortened accordingly: she's now down to around 13.012/1.
Against the likely finalists of Matt Terry, 5 After Midnight and Honey G, however, the odds on Saara look on the short side. She might have been rewarded by voters for a good performance but there is no guarantee of her sustaining that through to the final stages.
What Will Happen This Week?
It's Movie Week, a suitably wide-open genre that will disadvantage no one. Saara Alto is apparently singing something from Titanic - which could be deathly boring - and Ryan Lawrie is down to perform Jailhouse Rock, which can only be cheesily outdated.
Who's For The Chop?
It no surprise that Ryan is favourite for eviction at around 1.501/2, because he's likely to be in the Bottom Two, and, if he is, it's hard to see who the judges would evict before him. That's a risky bet at the odds, though. He clearly has a fan base, otherwise he wouldn't have survived this long, and if he is allowed to sing last, and performs well, he could yet survive another week.
A better bet is Emily Middlemas at 2.305/4 to be in the Bottom Two. I'm convinced her support is waning. Also, wouldn't it be a great story if Ryan and her - young loves - have to compete for survival in the sing-off?
1-point back Emily Middlemas at 2.305/4 to be in Bottom Two
Profit / Loss: +0.7 points
2-point back 5 After Midnight at 14.50 in Winner market - OPEN
5-point back 5 After Midnight at 6.205/1 in Winner market - OPEN
5-point back Matt Terry at 3.505/2 in Winner market - OPEN
5-point back Honey G at 8.4015/2 in Winner market - OPEN
3-point back Samantha Lavery at 12.50 in Winner market - LOST
1-point back Relley C at 3.259/4 in 1st Elimination market - LOST
1-point back Saara Alto at 7.006/1 in 1st Elimination market - LOST
1-point back Freddy Parker at 3.2011/5 in 2nd Elimination market - WON
1-point back Ryan Lawrie at 5.609/2 in 3rd Elimination market - LOST
1-point back Saara Aalto at 2.9015/8 in 4th Elimination market - LOST
3-point back Four of Diamonds at 3.505/2 in 5th Elimination market - WON
2-point back Emily Middlemas at 16.0015/1 in 6th Elimination Bottom Three market - VOID
2-point back Saara Alto at 3.505/2 in 6th Elimination market - LOST