X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 18 November 2011 /

During The X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. A brace of profitable years in hand, get involved as he goes for number three.

What do the French call it? I'm not sure, but it's what I like to call a dénouement: the moment when everything becomes clear; the moment when everything makes sense. Last week's show was my dénouement. Having gone in for a second time on Marcus Collins - the most likely winner of the series - and predicted Kitty's departure, it suddenly started to all come a little more easily.

I'm certainly happy with the portfolio. Although a few points down, Misha B's imminent departure will redress some of the balance, and I'm more than happy to rely on either Marcus or Amelia Lily to swing things firmly back into profitability in the outright market. For that reason I'm jettisoning my interest in Craig Colton. Having backed him at [17.0] before the live shows started, I'm happy to take a profit and lay him back now - five points at [7.4] - as, whilst I think he's talented, I think there are better acts left, and, now the dross has left the show, fear he may not have a wide enough fan-base to survive.

In what is the most open X Factor - from a betting point of view at least - of all time, I can certainly make a case for Janet Devlin ([5.9]) and Little Mix (nee Rhythmix) ([5.7]), but just not enough of a case to see them progressing further than Marcus ([4.2]) and Amelia ([4.5]). For this reason I'm going back in on the joint-favourites, who I expect to see fighting out the final show. If I'm wrong, it will likely be a very good series for fellow-columnist Mike Norman; if I'm right, a very good series for me.

This week's markets pose a few problems. Having already twice faced the executioner and been granted a reprieve, Misha B looks to be heading the way of the guillotine once more, but at a prohibitive [1.49] in the Bottom Two market, I'm not sure I want to be getting involved. Janet ([3.6]) and Little Mix ([2.8]) are of some interest at the prices, but the value call has to be the Bottom Two Combo market. Hoping that Craig can stay out of trouble in this movie-themed week, I'll be perming Janet, Misha and Little Mix in the hope of a big payout.

After the Vesuvius-like eruption of X Factor news last week, the offering this time around is depressingly scant. Barlow, who might work less next year to spend more time with his children, has reportedly said that Noel Gallagher, who may or may not have previously been offered the job of head judge, might have struggled with the time commitment the show requires. Strong stuff. And, oh yeah, a load of people whose names mean nothing to me have said things - some positive and some negative - about the show.

Luckily, Rihanna is due on Sunday's eviction show. She invited a slew of viewer complaints last year when rubbing and writhing all over Matt Cardle in the final, and can probably be relied upon to get the X Factor news-machine moving again in time for next week.

This week's recommendations:
5pts Lay Craig Colton at [7.4] in Winner market.
3pts Back Amelia Lily at [4.5] in Winner market.
3pts Back Marcus Collins at [4.2] in Winner market.
1pt Back Misha/Rhythmix at [4.0] in Bottom Two Combo market.
1pt Back Misha/Janet at [7.0] in Bottom Two Combo market.
1pt Back Janet/Rhythmix at [18.0] in Bottom Two Combo market.

Previously recommended:
2pts Back Kitty Brucknell at [2.26] in 10th Elimination market - WON.
2pts Back James Michael at [28.0] in Winner market - LOST.
5pts Back The Risk at [1.5] in Groups market - LOST.
5pts Back Johnny Robinson at [1.5] in Over 25s market - LOST.
3pts Back Kitty Brucknell at [1.5] in Bottom Three market - WON.
1pt Back Misha Bryan at [3.7] in Bottom Three market - LOST.
1pt Back Janet Devlin at [7.4] in Bottom Three market - UNMATCHED.
3pts Back Frankie Cocozza at [1.74] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1pt Back Frankie Cocozza at [3.8] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
2pts Back Nu Vibe at [2.32] in Bottom Two market - WON.
2pts Back The Risk at [22.0] in Winner market - LOST.
1pt Back Marcus Collins at [17.5] in Winner market - OPEN.
3pts Lay Misha Bryan at [1.81] in Top 3 market - OPEN.
3pts Back Amelia Lily at [5.8] in Winner market - OPEN.
2pts Back Craig Colton at [17.0] in Winner market - OPEN.
4pts Back Marcus Collins at [4.2] in Winner market - OPEN.

Settled bets:
26pts staked; 13.66pts returned; -12.34pts overall.

Star Predictor

You've read Jack's thoughts, but what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner market and the next elimination, check out our X-Factor Star Predictor...

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