X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 14 October 2011 / 2

During The X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. A brace of profitable years in hand, get involved as he goes for number three.

There's no point trying to hide it. I'm livid with myself. All week I've been walking on hands and knees, wearing sackcloth, and whipping myself with the torn and tattered remnants of the X Factor betting bible. Penance must be served to the God of X Factor betting (me), and serve it I have.

You see, for years I've advised people - in this here very column - to avoid betting in any market in which the judges have undue influence. And what do I go and do? You got it: I put up some bets in the outright market, right before those no-nothing nudniks go ahead and boot four of them out.

Now don't get me wrong, James Michael was a poor shout, for which I deserved to be punished. But Amelia Lily? She was certainly one of the better debutants last week, and there's no way she should have been shown the door. The only good to come from the whole thing is that we now hold two very strong bets in The Risk ([7.0]) and Craig Colton ([7.0]), who are trading much shorter than when advised. But it does feel as if I've thrown away five points of staking money for no good reason.

Still, not to worry: there are nine weeks left and I'm good enough to make up for that shortfall in no time.

First, though, to this week's X Factor news. And, predictably, it's all about Kitty. To begin with, we hear she might have once been a stripper. Next, a string of other contestants are reported to have called her annoying, or words to that effect. Then, Kitty tells us she's received loads of messages from people saying they find her inspirational. Next, Sinitta, who knows a thing or two about psychological profiling, marks her down as "tragically destructive". Then there are reports she (Kitty, not Sinitta) is bullying Janet Devlin. And, at the time of writing, rumours are meandering around cyberspace suggesting Kitty is about to quit the show. Or join Rythmix, depending on which rumours you believe.

We'll see. Whichever way you look at it, though, she's certainly pulling her weight in what has been a slow-news start to the show this year.

Talking of weight, it turns out that Barlow used to be fat, and that his nutritionist is helping Craig Colton not be quite so fat. You'll miss none of the big news by following this column folks. Did I tell you that Kitty, allegedly, also got her boobs out during a rehearsal?

Back to recovering that wasted money. In what will be "love and tenderness" week, Kitty should find herself in the bottom two, purely on the basis that she will only be familiar with hatred and hostility, but, as unlikable as she is, there are worse singers left in the competition, so she might survive a week or two yet.

On that note, headlining the talentless category are Nu Vibe, who were shockingly bad on the first show. At [2.32], they are worth an early punt to be in the bottom two.

Elsewhere, I'll be adding Marcus Collins [17.5] to my outright portfolio, and taking an early chance that Misha Bryan won't be around for long, by laying her at [1.81] in the Top 3 market.

This week's recommendations:

2pts Back Nu Vibe at [2.32] in Bottom Two market.
1pt Back Marcus Collins at [17.5] in Winner market.
3pts Lay Misha Bryan at [1.81] in Top 3 market.

Previously Recommended:
3pts Back Amelia Lily at [5.8] in Winner market - LOST.
2pts Back Craig Colton at [17.0] in Winner market - OPEN.
2pts Back James Michael at [28.0] in Winner market - LOST.
2pts Back The Risk at [22.0] in Winner market - OPEN.

Star Predictor

You've read Jack's thoughts but what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner market and the next elimination, check out our shiny new X-Factor Star Predictor...

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1. Keith | 14 October 2011

   Where did you get 2.6 for nu-vibe from they have never been that price, the highest bet struck on them was at 2.32.

2. Jack Houghton | 15 October 2011

   Fair point Keith. When I was writing the article the market was still very illiquid, and the spread on NV was something like 2.2-2.8. I picked 2.6 because it seemed a reasonable price that I thought would have got matched, but obviously opinion has tightened around them being in the bottom two since then.

   Anyway, I've adjusted the price in the article - thanks for drawing it to my attention.

   Jack

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