X-Factor / Mike Norman / 05 October 2011 / 5

Little was shown of Sophie Habibis during the audition process, but since Bootcamp the 19-year-old Londoner has emerged as a big contender to take this year\'s crown says Mike Norman.

'; echo showAtTime($entry_body); ?> Don\'t you just hate deadlines? For the last 48 hours I\'ve been desperately trying to find out what this BIG TWIST is going to be ahead of Saturday\'s first live show. But I\'ve failed miserably, and now I must make this year\'s X Factor selections without having a clue what\'s going on!

I sent emails to everyone who\'s anyone in the reality TV world (except Jack Houghton) asking for some insight into this weekend\'s surprise, and the only replies I received were from Syco TV saying that Louis Walsh will be beheaded live on air for even thinking of taking Goldie Cheung to the final, and an email from my boss saying that Mike Norman will be the red hot favourite in the First Elimination market if he doesn\'t get his preview posted. Charming!

So whatever the twist is going to be I\'m afraid I\'m completely in the dark, though most of my selections won\'t be affected by whatever happens on Saturday night.

I\'ve watched all 16 finalists as much as I possibly can. Actually, that\'s a lie because there is no footage of \'super\' group The Risk as they were only put together after the Judges Houses stage was complete. For the record The Risk started off as five solo performers and a group called The Keys. The five individuals then formed a group (called The Risk) only for two of them to be later axed whilst the three that were retained joined one member from The Keys. They were then re-named... err... The Risk!

I think we should all be thankful that The Risk\'s mentor Tulisa Contostavlos doesn\'t breed dogs or we\'d have a three-legged chocolate brown German bearded collie walking the streets!

I\'ve written a few words on each of the 16 finalists here, and from that you can probably deduce who I like and don\'t like, but after much deliberation I\'ve narrowed an initial five or six-long list down to just two selections in the Winner market.

I\'ve been a massive fan of [5.0] favourite Janet Devlin since the first time that I saw her, and if anyone had have said to me a few days ago that she won\'t be one of my selections I\'d have probably collapsed in a fit of hysterics. But here I am deserting her in favour of 19-year-old Londoner Sophie Habibis. Habibis wasn\'t even on my radar two weeks ago, but ever since Bootcamp I haven\'t been able to stop watching clips of her at every opportunity. I\'m now officially hooked on her.

I\'m not a huge follower of trends in competitions like this either, but we have seven years of results to go on now and it\'s fair to say that the trends are starting to have an impact, especially when your fancied contestant fits these trends as well as being able to sing.

The last six winners of the X Factor have been in the Boys or Girls category, whilst five of those six winners were between the ages of 18 and 21. Also worthy of note is the location of the previous winners; every one has come from an area with a huge population - Newcastle (Joe McElderry), Manchester (Shayne Ward), Scotland (Leon Jackson), Essex (Matt Cardle) and London (Steve Brookstein, Leona Lewis and Alexandra Burke).

Habibis fits perfectly into all these pointers, so at [14.0] to back, she is very much worth a wager at this stage. Very little of her was shown during the audition process but as the weeks commence people are going to take note of how good she actually is and her odds will surely shorten. And above all else she is a great singer and looks to have a very unpretentious personality.

My other selection is the very funny and likeable Craig Colton at [18.0]. Again he fits the profile of the previous winners though it is a worry that two of the other Boys - Marcus Collins ([14.0]) and James Michael ([18.0]) - also come from Liverpool. If Colton can see off those two and get that part of the country supporting him then he will go far.

One of my strongest recommendations is Johnnie Robinson at [4.2] in the Over 25s market. I can\'t emphasise enough how likeable this 45-year-old is, and I can see the whole country - except for my boss that is - falling in love with his infectious personality. He\'s not the greatest singer in the world, but I think the public will do everything in their power to keep him in the competition as long as they can. He is going to be an uplifting journey.

If anyone knows what the much anticipated twist is - or has an idea of what it is - then please leave a comment below. I can officially confirm however that Wagner isn\'t returning... and neither are Jedward, fingers crossed!

EDIT: I can now reveal that this week\'s twist is that four acts will be eliminated this weekend, which quite frankly isn\'t the big twist we were promised, but more a complete waste of four acts time. Each mentor will ditch one of their own acts meaning one of the Girls category - who quite easily could have made the last four or five - will now have to leave the competition. Fingers crossed that Girl isn\'t Sophie.

Recommended Bets

Back Sophie Habibis @ [14.0] in Winner market (1pt)
Back Craig Colton @ [18.0] in Winner market (1pt)
Back Johnny Robinson @ [4.2] in Over 25s market (2pts)

Already advised

Back Kelly Rowland @ [2.6] in Winning Mentor market (1pt)

Star Predictor

You\'ve read Mike\'s thoughts but what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner market and the next elimination check out our shiny new X-Factor Star Predictor...

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1. JJ | 05 October 2011

   Joe is actually from a town called south shields not far from newcastle. And leon is from glaqsgow, scotland is a country not a city.

2. Mike | 05 October 2011

   Thanks JJ, I'm well aware Scotland is a country :-)

   The point is that regarding Leon, he was the only contestant from Scotland that year so regardless of where in Scotland he was born he was always going to get a huge vote from his homeland.

   And South Shields is what, four miles out of Newcastle? So again, Joe will have polled a lot of votes from that part of the country.

   A lot of people are quick to dismiss geography in competitions like this but there certainly hasn’t been any concrete evidence yet to take it lightly. As I’ve already said, all seven previous winners come from areas of high population. You only have to look at previous Finals shows to see the extent of local support for contestants.

   Of course, it could simply be coincidence where each winner has came from, but I'd be more inclined to back someone from London than someone from Middlesbrough if their personalities and singing ability were pretty much equal.

3. Anom | 05 October 2011

   I do know the twist... Simon cowell will be joining the judges panel. No joke. Fact.

4. Lisa | 05 October 2011

   I agree about Sophie she is a class act and will easy make the final three. Think Frankie is the best of the boys tho

5. Hug | 06 October 2011

   Simon Cowell joining the panel is not a twist - unles he actually does something. Otherwise he's just another judge making comments and theres no twist in that

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