X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 04 November 2011 / 3

During The X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. A brace of profitable years in hand, get involved as he goes for number three.

I'm vexed. Positively vexed. It's that Mike the Norman (his parents were French). He's been in sparklingly prescient mood of late and, quite frankly, he's making me look ham amateur. Not that I'm bitter. He tries ever so hard, and deserves these brief moments of recognition. Bless him.

And anyway, whatever losses this column may have incurred of late, they will all be more than cancelled out when our long-term bets begin to blossom. Misha Bryan is as good as gone, which will allow us to collect on our top 3 lay, and I still can't envisage Janet Devlin winning the thing, which leaves us incredibly well placed on The Risk, Craig Colton and Marcus Collins - who are still the most viable contenders for the outright title.

In many ways this column is a microcosm of the X Factor itself. The show is going through some short-term pain. Ratings are down and Cowbell has reportedly intervened, giving finalists a good talking to and insisting on a triple-elimination-shocker this weekend. Massive action of this sort will, of course, bring Cowbell the Supreme (his mother is Diana Ross) massive results. So it will be for us, dear readers. We just need to adopt the approach of Cowbell, take massive action, and then reap the rewards.

Let's get started in the Groups' market. Whatever might be said about the merits of Little Mix (nee Rythmix), they are very unlikely to survive into the very late stages of this competition. Being able to back The Risk at [1.5] in this market, then, is a gift, and should be treated as such.

Similarly, Johnny Robinson is a shoo-in for the Over 25s. Although Brucknell the Kitty (her parents were demented wild cats) won plaudits last week for a slightly more bearable performance, she is ultimately unpopular and will be gone soon, perhaps as soon as this weekend. Johnny, on the other hand, will be safe for a few weeks, so we should get stuck in to the [1.5].

As for this week's elimination, it's difficult to see how the Club Classics' theme will play. Outside of our trio of The Risk, Craig and Marcus, I can easily see any of the remainder being in the bottom three. For whatever reason, the talentless Frankie has managed to evade the sing-off in the past two weeks, and I'm reluctant to weigh in again at such a short price, even though he has to struggle with the theme this time around.

A better bet to be in the bottom three is Kitty. She continues to receive negative press - most recently for an alleged racist comment directed the way of The Risk's Derry Mensah - and, on this basis, [1.5] looks pretty tasty.

Having predicted in week one that Misha Bryan was too weird to be popular, I was kicking myself a little not to have backed her for a bottom two berth last week. Given that fate, it's surprising to see her as big as [3.7] this week to be in the bottom three, which looks like a very big price to me.

Rounding of this instalment I'm going to have a punt on Janet Devlin struggling this week. The theme won't suit her, and [7.4] looks just too juicy to ignore.

This week's recommendations:
5pts Back The Risk at [1.5] in Groups market.
5pts Back Johnny Robinson at [1.5] in Over 25s market.
3pts Back Kitty Brucknell at [1.5] in Bottom Three market.
1pt Back Misha Bryan at [3.7] in Bottom Three market.
1pt Back Janet Devlin at [7.4] in Bottom Three market.

Previously recommended:
3pts Back Frankie Cocozza at [1.74] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
1pt Back Frankie Cocozza at [3.8] in Bottom Two market - LOST.
2pts Back Nu Vibe at [2.32] in Bottom Two market - WON.
1pt Back Marcus Collins at [17.5] in Winner market - OPEN.
3pts Lay Misha Bryan at [1.81] in Top 3 market - OPEN.
3pts Back Amelia Lily at [5.8] in Winner market - LOST.
2pts Back Craig Colton at [17.0] in Winner market - OPEN.
2pts Back James Michael at [28.0] in Winner market - LOST.
2pts Back The Risk at [22.0] in Winner market - OPEN.

Settled bets:
11.00pts staked; 4.64pts returned; -6.36pts overall.

Star Predictor

You've read Jack's thoughts, but what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner market and the next elimination, check out our X-Factor Star Predictor...

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(3)

1. Anonymous | 05 November 2011

   Where did you get those prices from, a Betfair Christmas Cracker or do staff get 20% extra on the Exchange than us mere mortals?

2. Jack Houghton | 05 November 2011

   Very amusing Anonymous.

   The prices on The Risk and Johnny Robinson were all available last night after the article went up. If you look on the graph for each selection, you'll see this was the case.

   As for the Bottom Three bets, you're absolutely right - the prices do look unrealistic this morning.

   At the time of writing the market had only just gone up, and I chose recommended prices that were mid-way between what were very wide spreads. Obviously, as the market has tightened up, these prices have started to look a little hopeful to say the least. Therefore I've adjusted them accordingly.

   I should also say that, after each week, I check the prices recommended were actually matched, and would certainly never "claim" a price that hadn't been achieved for real.

   Thanks for drawing this to my attention,

   Jack

3. LR | 05 November 2011

   No need to worry about the 'club classics' theme not suiting Queen Janet. They've changed it to 'floor fillers'. I suspect they have widened the scope of the theme to allow Janet to not struggle this week.

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