X-Factor / Jack Houghton / 07 October 2011 /

During The X Factor last year, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of £1,000 into a whopping £1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. A brace of profitable years in hand, get involved as he goes for number three.

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More importantly, I\'m a busy man. When you\'re known as the Sage of The X Factor - as I should be - there are constant demands on your time: Cowbell wanting advice on his transatlantic exploits; Barlow and Tulisa wanting to talk song choice for their categories; and Cole wanting to know how to return to The X Factor inner circle. Add to that Walsh\'s penchant for sex-texting me in the early hours and you can appreciate it\'s all getting a little wearing.

Amidst the tumultuous hullabaloo that is the first live show, though, I remain grounded, ready to dispense advice to my trusty betting.betfair followers. Welcome back loyal subjects.

To business. Early favourite Janet Devlin ([5.0]) won\'t win. She\'s lovely and all that, but her vocal affectations, whilst initially charming, will begin to grate after a few weeks. Think Diana Vickers - interesting at first; but ultimately annoying.

Amelia Lily, on the other hand, might win. She\'s likeable, mainstream, and was by far the most talented vocalist to survive the Judges\' Houses and, as I\'ve written before, it\'s likeable, mainstream and talented acts that tend to be successful. Whilst not going crazy before the first week - it\'s always good to see how the acts cope with the new format before getting stuck in - I\'ll be having a few quid on her at [5.8].

Frankie Cocozza ([10.5]), despite his popularity on the social networking sites, isn\'t a good enough singer to go all the way and, although interesting, Misha Bryan ([10.5]) is just too weird to attract enough of the public vote.

Two soloists who can sing, and aren\'t weird, are Craig Colton ([17.0]) and James Michael ([28.0]). Colton has been a late developer in my eyes - I wasn\'t hugely impressed with him until he sang at Barlow\'s house - and with the right songs he is likely to go a long way: at least long enough to trade at a much shorter price in the latter stages. As for Michael, I\'m reliable informed that he\'s phenomenally good-looking, which won\'t hurt his chances of belying those big odds.

That just leaves the Groups and the Oldies. Sami Brookes ([60.0]) might survive a few weeks by belting out Shirley Bassey tunes, before everyone realises she\'s half-a-century out-of-touch. But as for the rest of Louis\' crew, I can\'t see them being around for too long, unless Kitty Brucknell ([44.0]) is tolerated beyond her talent for the sake of ratings in the way that Katie Waissel was last year. Or was it the year before? I have to be honest, my X Factor memories are starting to merge and meld somewhat.

Because of a half-baked accepted wisdom that a group cannot win the show, The Risk ([22.0]) is far too big a price, and will complete my portfolio of bets in the Winner market for the time being.

My wife (don\'t look surprised, I am married) was convinced the advertised big twist would involve swapping the judges\' categories around, but it looks like she\'s wrong: according to The X Factor website, the first weekend will instead see four of the finalists go home. Shame. What that tells us, though, is that we should abstain from the other markets until their shape becomes a little clearer.

Until next week. I can\'t wait.

Recommendations
3pts Back Amelia Lily at [5.8] in Winner market.
2pts Back Craig Colton at [17.0] in Winner market.
2pts Back James Michael at [28.0] in Winner market.
2pts Back The Risk at [22.0] in Winner market.

Star Predictor

You\'ve read Jack\'s thoughts, but what does the Betfair market say? For the latest odds on the winner market and the next elimination check out our shiny new X-Factor Star Predictor...

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