X Factor 2010 Betting: Taxi for Wagner

X-Factor / Mike Norman / 22 November 2010 / 4

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Wagner's time on the X Factor could be up if the serious voters come out in force

"It’s quite clear that someone like Cardle or One Direction could do a karaoke version of The Birdie Song and still get through, whereas Lloyd or Waissel could perform brilliantly yet find themselves in the bottom two."

After backing Paije Richardson to go last week, Mike Norman is on the front foot in his battle with Jack Houghton, and this week he believes Wagner will add more cash to his armoury.

For two years they've clashed over the X-Factor. In 2008, Mike Norman prevailed. In 2009, Jack Houghton made it honours even. Norman's claims of foul-play last year sparked a brawl at the betting.betfair Christmas party. To avoid a repeat performance, the editors have decided to formalise things this year. Each armed with a £1,000 and their We-Love-You-Simon badges, Mike and Jack go head-to-head - tipping their way to a Christmas number one."

I'm not quite sure what to make of the X Factor weekend we've all just had to endure; it was bizarre to say the least!

Most of the craziness centred around eccentric Brazilian Wagner, who without a shadow of a doubt put in the worst performance I've ever seen by any X Factor contestant this year or any other year. But it was Cheryl Cole's post-song verbals towards Vaarg-ner that made for uncomfortable viewing. Wagner had simply stated some facts in an interview done earlier in the week, that Cole was someone to look up to because of the way she's come from a council estate to where she is today.

Unfortunately Princess Cole took offence to Wagner's subsequently twisted words and decided to have a pop at him live on air. It was all very unprofessional - on Cole's part - if you ask me, and not for the first time this series her majesty didn't cover herself in glory.

Strangely enough, Cole somehow avoided the wrath of Louis Walsh's rule book after her act Cher Lloyd performed the John Lennon classic Imagine... on Beatles night. True, Lennon was once a member of the Beatles but can you imagine (no pun intended) the uproar if Matt Cardle were to sing Angels on a night when the theme is Take That?

I have to say that I thought Beatles night was a massive disappointment. Cardle - who remains the [3.0] favourite to win the competition - performed ok but wasn't anything special. One Direction ([3.2]) appeared to do well but after watching a few re-runs their performance contained quite a few errors, and Rebecca Ferguson ([4.8]) looked a nervous wreck before getting through her rendition of Yesterday. Only Mary Byrne ([44.0]), Katie Waissel ([40.0]) and Paije Richardson performed with credit, yet the latter of those three became the ninth act to be eliminated after losing out in a sing-off to Lloyd ([16.0]).

From a form perspective then, it's best just to ignore what went on last Saturday and instead concentrate on how popular each act is. It's quite clear that someone like Cardle or One Direction could do a karaoke version of The Birdie Song and still get through, whereas Lloyd or Waissel could perform brilliantly yet find themselves in the bottom two.

This week's 10th Elimination market is still hard to call however. And nothing is made easier by not knowing whether it will be a single or double elimination this weekend (there has to be a double elimination sooner or later otherwise Simon Cowell will be hoping to have a Christmas number one by getting the winner to release a single in January!) Waissel is the [2.58] favourite in this particular market, just ahead of Wagner ([3.1]), Byrne ([6.8]) and Lloyd ([8.6]).

Before I make a selection allow me for one moment to get all smug. From the 11 settled bets below, 10 of them are losers. My outlay on those 11 bets is £430, my return on those 11 bets - thanks to my one and only winner - is £448. That, Jack Houghton, is how you get back in the ball game. It's all fine and dandy swanning off to some Swiss army camp supping cheap mulled wine mate, but never let complacency affect your judgement. The way you're going, your next holiday could be in Hartlepool with just a few cans of cider to keep you warm. Still, you could always ask me for a few quid.

This week I'm backing Wagner to finally bite the bullet. Once he'd survived the first few weeks I said that he'll get to the last six or seven before the serious voters outweigh the joke ones. I could end up following him over a cliff if he's more popular than I think he is, but at [3.1] to be the next to go, he's worth £48 of my money.

Betting bank running total = £448
This week's recommendations

£48 BACK Wagner at [3.1] in 10th Elimination market

Previous recommendations

£140 BACK Rebecca Ferguson at [4.4] in Winner market - OPEN
£80 BACK One Direction at [4.2] in Winner market - OPEN
£100 BACK Rebecca Ferguson at [5.2] in Winner market - OPEN
£75 BACK One Direction at [5.8] in Winner market - OPEN
£75 BACK Simon Cowell at [3.5] in Winning Mentor market - OPEN
£100 BACK One Direction at [4.0] in Winner market - OPEN

£30 BACK John Adeleye at [7.6] in 3rd Elimination market - LOST
£30 BACK Wagner at [5.2] in 3rd Elimination market - LOST
£30 BACK Paije Richardson at [5.4] in 5th Elimination market - LOST
£30 BACK Paije Richardson at [5.4] in 6th Elimination market - LOST
£50 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [5.8] in Winner market - LOST
£50 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [12.0] in Winner market - LOST
£20 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [18.0] in 7th Elimination market - LOST
£30 BACK Treyc Cohen at [19.0] in Winner market - LOST
£60 BACK Treyc Cohen at [4.7] in Girls market - LOST
£70 BACK Paije Richardson at [6.4] in 9th Elimination market - WON
£30 BACK Mary Byrne at [14.0] in 9th Elimination market - LOST

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Ron | 22 November 2010

The votes of X-Factor fans will still be spread across six acts this week, while the X-Factor haters will ALL vote Wagner again, just to see Cheryl Cole pull her hideous "chewing a wasp" face.

The question is how many people would vote Wagner just to make X-Factor look ridiculous? I appreciate it's not the same, but last Christmas the haters outnumbered the X-Factor fans by keeping Joe off the number 1 spot. It wouldn't be a total shock if Wagner had polled the most votes in recent weeks. If he only gets 14% of the total vote he's safe for another week, so I think you're throwing your money away.

You have to laugh when Wagner's eviction price plummets following another horrible singing performance. The people voting Wagner are voting for him BECAUSE he's terrible. Murdering the songs of the Beatles is what guaranteed he wouldn't be in the bottom 2.
Robert | 22 November 2010

Hmm...Wagner might go..

...but it's worth pointing out that during the live shows this weekend..Wagner had more "to win" support on twitter than Cher,Katie,Rebecca,Paije and Mary combined.

In fact after Paije was voted out over Cher..Wagner actually had more people supporting him to win..than Matt or One Direction.

Running order will be crucial..I think that's all that saved Katie from the bottom two this week.
Mike | 23 November 2010

Thanks for your comments Robert and Ron, you both make some very valid points.

I have to admit to getting a bit worried about the possibility of Wagner winning - if he does then I think that will definitely be the end of the X Factor. Either that or a serious re-vamp into how the voting is done.

At this moment however I'm prepared to go with trends from previous years. And that is that there's always a 'joke' act in there (Jedward, Chico etc) and they usually get to the latter part of the show before getting the boot.

True, both Chico and Jedward got further in the competitiont than the stage we are at now, but that was when only 12 acts were in the final and not 16. It seems we've had to endure the pain of Wagner for ages now. He must go... surely? :-)
Chris | 23 November 2010

Widdecombe and Wagner both to win - singles and a double is the way to go.

The same barmy demographic are voting for them. In fact Ann is probably even more likely to win SCD than Wagner to win XF.

The fact that BOTH of them were not in the bottom two yet again this week will be worrying the bookies. It would be the most hilarious Christmas reality TV double if they both oblige - with the judges having no voting power it's quite possible.