X-Factor / Mike Norman / 11 October 2010 / 1

After an excellent opening night of live performances Mike Norman believes one of his picks has doubled his chances of winning, whilst one of the wildcard picks could be a lively outsider.

For two years they've clashed over the X-Factor. In 2008, Mike Norman prevailed. In 2009, Jack Houghton made it honours even. Norman's claims of foul-play last year sparked a brawl at the betting.betfair Christmas party. To avoid a repeat performance, the editors have decided to formalise things this year. Each armed with a £1,000 and their We-Love-You-Simon badges, Mike and Jack go head-to-head - tipping their way to a Christmas number one."

After Saturday's first live performances the only surprise to me is how was Aiden Grimshaw available to back at [12.0] this time last week?

I appreciate that not all of you are betting orientated, so what those odds mean is that putting £10 on Grimshaw to win will return you £120 (less a tiny commission) should the Blackpool lad go on to victory. His current odds of [5.8] will return you £58 for your £10, and that effectively means that - in the eyes of Betfair punters at least - his chances of winning have more than doubled in the last few days.

And it's easy to see why. Grimshaw's rendition of the Tears for Fears hit Mad World was - to coin a Simon Cowell phrase - on the money. It was sung exactly how it should be, with passion and intensity, and it was the kind of performance that fully vindicates Cowell's audition assessment of the teenager when he said, "Now that's what I call a pop star".

For the 36 hours that followed Grimshaw's performance he was the marginal favourite in the Winner market, but on Monday morning Matt Cardle ([5.6]) had regained that position. Cardle - singing When Love Takes Over - also performed with enormous credit on Saturday night but I'm of the opinion that song choice is absolutely crucial to this guy. There'll be some weeks - big band week springs to mind - when the type of song he'll be asked to perform might not suit his voice. It also remains to be seen how he'll perform without a hat on!

Two other acts that caught my attention on Saturday night were 50-year-old former supermarket worker Mary Byrne ([9.6]), and 27-year-old wildcard pick Treyc Cohen ([19.0])

Byrne was fantastic in her audition, and she was fantastic again on the first night of live performances. Singing the James Brown hit It's A Man's Man's Man's World she arguably got the reception of the night, though I'm not sure whether her subsequent tears were emotion-based, or due to the fact that X Factor stylists had failed miserably in their attempts to make Mary look 20 years younger.

Cohen meanwhile closed out Saturday's show by performing U2's One, a performance that had Cowell admitting, "By a clear mile that was the best vocal of the entire competition". Cohen - who I now see as a lively contender - has already justified Cheryl Cole's decision to bring her back as a wildcard, but it also adds considerable weight to the argument that she should have been there in the first place, possibly at the expense of Katie Waissel, who had to survive a sing-off on Sunday.

To her credit Waissel did perform well in that sing-off which ultimately meant that FYD were eliminated alongside Nicolo Festa, but I can't help but feel that the attention-seeking Madonna lookalike will be gone sooner rather than later.

As I alluded too earlier, Aiden Grimshaw has shortened dramatically in the Winner market, and with Rebecca Ferguson ([7.2]) and One Direction ([6.4]) doing nothing to harm their chances of winning I'm already in a good position to make a profit on this year's show. But I am going to make two more wagers this week; one being a further £50 on Grimshaw at [5.8], the other being a £30 win bet on Cohen at [19.0].

In the Third Elimination market the two to concentrate on are John Adeleye and Wagner. Rather surprisingly, both acts survived comfortably last week, but regardless of whether two acts get eliminated this week or just the one I can't envisage at least one of these Over 28s not being in the bottom two this time. At [7.6] and [5.2] to back respectively, I'm having £30 win on each.

Betting bank running total = £700
This week's recommendations

£50 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [5.8] in Winner market
£30 BACK Treyc Cohen at [19.0] in Winner market
£30 BACK John Adeleye at [7.6] in 3rd Eliminaiton market
£30 BACK Wagner at [5.2] in 3rd Eliminaiton market

Previous recommendations

£100 BACK Rebecca Ferguson at [5.2] in Winner market - OPEN
£50 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [12.0] in Winner market - OPEN
£75 BACK One Direction at [5.8] in Winner market - OPEN
£75 BACK Simon Cowell at [3.5] in Winning Mentor market - OPEN

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1. lizziejames | 16 October 2010

   this guy reminds me of a young Johny
   depp

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