X-Factor / Mike Norman / 30 November 2010 / 2

Just two weeks of this year's X Factor remain, and Mike Norman is doing the chasing in his quest to regain tbe title of Reality TV Tipster of the Year.

For two years they've clashed over the X-Factor. In 2008, Mike Norman prevailed. In 2009, Jack Houghton made it honours even. Norman's claims of foul-play last year sparked a brawl at the betting.betfair Christmas party. To avoid a repeat performance, the editors have decided to formalise things this year. Each armed with a £1,000 and their We-Love-You-Simon badges, Mike and Jack go head-to-head - tipping their way to a Christmas number one."

It's not often that I agree with Simon Cowell, after all, him being a multi-millionaire is down to his complete lack of knowledge, whereas me being skint is purely down to the fact that people just won't pay to listen to me! But, on Sunday night, Cowell was absolutely correct to 'celebrate' the departure of Wagner when insisting that we can now get on with a singing competition, and that us nervous punters don't have to tremble like someone that trembles when having a wager on this year's X Factor.

So, Wagner is gone (and so too is Katie Waissel but the less said about that the better... cough... well done Jack... cough), and just five acts remain in the hunt to be crowned this year's champion singer.

Matt Cardle is now available to back at just [1.8] in the winner market, which is good news for ... cough... Jack... cough, but he isn't home and hosed quite yet. He may be smoother than one of those fruit-free yoghurts that I've just swallowed without feeling a horrible lump in my throat, but my saving grace is that the audience support for One Direction ([4.9]) is undoubtedly louder. Or is that just because I turn the volume on my TV up when the quintet are on?

And if the audience support for One Direction is superior to the support for Cradle, sorry Cardle, the surely the rest of the country prefers the best boy band that's ever lived also... don't they? Well I think so. That's why I'm having £300 on One Direction in the Top 3 market at [1.25]. It's the easiest £75 I will ever make, I can guarantee you that.

Cardle is a worthy favourite for sure, but he's not the strongest favourite I've ever seen at this stage of the competition. I've had a feeling from day one that the Groups will win this year which is why I'm fully behind the One Direction boys (I have a girlfriend before you make any wisecracks), and I also believe that Rebecca Ferguson ([5.6]) is in with a great shout of winning. Having said that, if either Cher Lloyd ([21.0]) or Mary Byrne ([85.0]) is to make the final week then I do think that Ferguson could be in the most danger of missing out.

I really want Lloyd to make the final. I didn't like her at first but she has completely won me over, and for me, she was the best performer by a mile in last Saturday's rock night. True, Cardle and One Direction were faultless, but Lloyd took a risk and pulled it off effortlessly.

So, the question is, do I stake £100 on Lloyd to make the Top 3 at odds of [3.6] or do I lay Ferguson at [1.4] in the same market (which effectively gives me a bet on Byrne to finish in the top three also if Lloyd doesn't make it)? Decision made; it's £100 on Lloyd in the Top 3 market, quite simply because I don't want Byrne to make it because... cough... Jack... cough, has punted her. Is there any angle that that crepin hasn't covered?

You know, I've been extremely unlucky in this series. I backed John Adeleye to be the third act to be eliminated, he was the fourth; I backed Aiden Grimshaw to be the seventh act to leave, he was the eighth, and last week I backed Wagner to be the 10th act to be eliminated, you guessed it, he was the 11th. But hats of to Jack Houghton (that's the guy I've been splurting over), he's played the game well and he's in a good position.

However, Jack, still hasn't covered One Direction or Ferguson in the Winner market. He's got to play this week really careful and he knows it. One mistake and I'll pounce. Good luck Houghton.

Betting bank running total = £400
This week's recommendations

£300 BACK One Direction at [1.25] in Top 3 market
£100 BACK Cher Lloyd at [3.6] in Top 3 market

Previous recommendations

£140 BACK Rebecca Ferguson at [4.4] in Winner market - OPEN
£80 BACK One Direction at [4.2] in Winner market - OPEN
£100 BACK Rebecca Ferguson at [5.2] in Winner market - OPEN
£75 BACK One Direction at [5.8] in Winner market - OPEN
£75 BACK Simon Cowell at [3.5] in Winning Mentor market - OPEN
£100 BACK One Direction at [4.0] in Winner market - OPEN

£30 BACK John Adeleye at [7.6] in 3rd Elimination market - LOST
£30 BACK Wagner at [5.2] in 3rd Elimination market - LOST
£30 BACK Paije Richardson at [5.4] in 5th Elimination market - LOST
£30 BACK Paije Richardson at [5.4] in 6th Elimination market - LOST
£50 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [5.8] in Winner market - LOST
£50 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [12.0] in Winner market - LOST
£20 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [18.0] in 7th Elimination market - LOST
£30 BACK Treyc Cohen at [19.0] in Winner market - LOST
£60 BACK Treyc Cohen at [4.7] in Girls market - LOST
£70 BACK Paije Richardson at [6.4] in 9th Elimination market - WON
£30 BACK Mary Byrne at [14.0] in 9th Elimination market - LOST
£48 BACK Wagner at [3.1] in 10th Elimination market - LOST

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1. ellie | 30 November 2010

   When have you been able to get 1.3 on One Direction in the Top 3 market? They haven't traded above 1.25 in days? It must be a typo - did you mean 1.2?

2. Mike | 01 December 2010

   I think I got those odds from the same place Mr Houghton got 95.0 about Cher Lloyd in the 9th Elimination market (she was never matched above 18.0) :-)

   However, for the sake of this blog, this is just virtual money we play with so I can't prove that 1.3 was available at the time of writing; though I swear it was.

   Therefore I have edited my bet to the 1.25 that you state. The difference in money returned between 1.3 and 1.25 is no more than £15, and in all honesty, I'd rather the readers feel comfortable that the prices I state above are similar to what is currently available.

   It's good to remember though, if you are someone that is reading this article 24 hours after it was published, then the odds I've quoted could well have disappeared into thin air... that's the beauty of Betfair.

   Thank you for bringing this to my attention.

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