X-Factor / Mike Norman / 06 December 2010 /

Mike Norman believes this Saturday's X Factor Final is finely balanced, and the winner could well be decided by who performs best on the night, and not by who has the most support now.

For two years they've clashed over the X-Factor. In 2008, Mike Norman prevailed. In 2009, Jack Houghton made it honours even. Norman's claims of foul-play last year sparked a brawl at the betting.betfair Christmas party. To avoid a repeat performance, the editors have decided to formalise things this year. Each armed with a £1,000 and their We-Love-You-Simon badges, Mike and Jack go head-to-head - tipping their way to a Christmas number one."

I was appalled this morning. Some brash salesman, trying to get me to switch to his electric company, told me that watching prime time shows like The X Factor costs more money than watching low-budget daytime television programmes.

I couldn't believe what I was hearing. I was so angry in fact that I phoned the electric company's head office and demanded an explanation. "Do you have a living room light on when you watch The X Factor?" the woman asked. "Yes", I replied. "And do you have your electric fire on?" "Yes", was again my answer. "Well Mr Norman", she said, "The reason it costs more is because you use more electricity at night". Suitably embarrassed, I signed the salesman's transfer form and sent him on his way. Clever little sod.

And let this be a lesson to you all. Just because someone who appears to know their stuff tells you something, it doesn't mean it's as it seems. Just because I tell you that Matt Cardle is the [1.9] favourite to win this week's X Factor Final, it doesn't mean he's going to win. And just because Jack Houghton - another brash so and so may I add - tells you that he is going to win our battle of the tipsters, it doesn't mean he's going to win either.

In fact, this might come as a surprise to Mr Houghton, but if for some reason this weekend's final was cancelled... I don't know, let's just say there's a power cut, then I would be crowned the winner of our little battle. I've got £970 worth of open bets (which would be returned to me), Houghton's got £170 in open bets and £630.20 available to spend. In other words, to this point, I'm just £30 down, Houghton is nearly £200 down!

Cardle (and Jack) may well win this weekend of course, but it's by no means a forgone conclusion - his main rivals One Direction - available to back at [3.8] - and Rebecca Ferguson ([5.2]) have huge support also.

Cardle - the 27-even-year-old former painter and decorator - became an instant hit when he brilliantly performed The First Time (Ever I Saw Your Face) at Boot Camp, and he has continued to wow the women ever since with his powerful, and often emotional, performances. A bout of cold meant he wasn't at his best last time but his popularity is so high that he was always going to get a reprieve. He will need to be over that cold by the weekend however because this competition is a lot tighter than people think it is, and the winner could, and probably will, be decided by who performs best on Saturday night.

If Cardle's got the support of the women then One Direction have definitely got the support of the kids, the teenagers, and possibly the parents. They are vying to become the first group in X Factor history to win the competition and fully deserve to do so in my biased opinion. They have been extremely consistent throughout the series, their rendition of Total Eclipse of the Heart in week four being a particular highlight.

Ferguson often gets singled out for being shy, and sometimes nervous, on stage. But is that a bad thing? She has hardly put a foot wrong all series and will improve 10-fold once in a recording studio. If she can continue in the same vein on Saturday night - just like she did last Saturday - then I think she has a serious chance of winning.

You have to hand if to Cher Lloyd for getting this far. She was the recipient of a lot of bad publicity in the early weeks but despite this, and despite being in the bottom two on a few occasions, she hasn't let it bother her. Her style of music doesn't appeal to everyone and she doesn't always perform without errors, but she gives it her all every week and will definitely go down fighting. Her odds of [50.0] to win are about right but you just never know in this year's competition, it's been full or surprises since day one.

So that's it from me folks, for another year at least. I'll be back on Sunday night to briefly re-cap the results, the odds that were available, and of course, who the Reality TV Tipster of the Year is.

The situation is this (Jack's not very good with numbers you see). If One Direction win my virtual bank balance will be up to at least £1,808.50 (and possibly more depending on where Lloyd finishes), whereas if Ferguson wins I will have netted at least £1,496. Any other result means I will be at most £640 down. Good luck Jack, it's been a pleasure as always.

Betting bank running total = £0

Open Bets

£140 BACK Rebecca Ferguson at [4.4] in Winner market
£80 BACK One Direction at [4.2] in Winner market
£100 BACK Rebecca Ferguson at [5.2] in Winner market
£75 BACK One Direction at [5.8] in Winner market
£75 BACK Simon Cowell at [3.5] in Winning Mentor market
£100 BACK One Direction at [4.0] in Winner market
£300 BACK One Direction at [1.25] in Top 3 market
£100 BACK Cher Lloyd at [3.6] in Top 3 market

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