X-Factor / Mike Norman / 01 November 2010 / 1

Last weekend's 'horror' show proved that Matt Cardle is beatable in this year's X Factor says Mike Norman, though our man has given up hope on dull Aiden Grimshaw.

For two years they've clashed over the X-Factor. In 2008, Mike Norman prevailed. In 2009, Jack Houghton made it honours even. Norman's claims of foul-play last year sparked a brawl at the betting.betfair Christmas party. To avoid a repeat performance, the editors have decided to formalise things this year. Each armed with a £1,000 and their We-Love-You-Simon badges, Mike and Jack go head-to-head - tipping their way to a Christmas number one.

Don't you just love these theme weeks? It was supposed to be Halloween week, the week that the X Factor went all 18-certificate on us, including ghosts, monsters, witches, blood, gore, and most of all, songs that had a 'scary' aspect to them. Instead we got Could It Be Magic, Back To Black and Stay. My 15-year-old nephew was right, I should have allowed him to stay up and watch it!

Even Thriller - which is supposed to be the monster (pardon the pun) of all songs scary - was performed in a manner that had members of my household in hysterics, not hiding behind the settee in fear.

I just don't get Aiden Grimshaw. The X Factor should have been perfect for him. He has the make-up of the ideal pop star - 18-year-old good-looking lad with a great voice. He was excellent during the audition stages and then was arguably the best performer of the night during the first live show, so much so in fact that he was challenging for favouritism in the Winner market. But since then he's gone backwards faster than a Formula 1 racing car stuck in reverse. His rendition of Thriller was just bizarre, and it's also the fourth week in a row that he has performed in the same monotonous way rendering him totally unappealing.

Grimshaw is now available to back at [28.0] in the Winner market but he has absolutely no chance. I'm so confident that he won't win that I've tore up my virtual bet slips and changed the status of my outstanding wagers on him to LOST. He'll probably get better this weekend now that I've said that but unfortunately the damage has already been done.

Matt Cardle remains the [3.8] favourite to win this year but for the first time since this series began he was amongst the poorer performers rather than right up there with the better ones. True, the Leona Lewis hit Bleeding Love is a difficult song to sing, but if that was a known fact beforehand - as it appeared to be - then why sing it? Everyone is allowed a bad week, or even two or three, but Cardle's performance at least shows he's not perfect, and more to the point, he is very beatable.

And that gives me great hope that one of my two remaining realistic chances - One Direction ([4.2]) and Rebecca Ferguson ([4.4]) - will triumph this year.

One Direction - and I'm expecting a barrage of comments to the contrary after saying this - were once again fantastic. Ok, they need a bit of fine tuning, but as every week goes by they look more confident. More importantly they're enjoying themselves, they now have Simon Cowell's full attention after Belle Amie were eliminated, and the audience absolutely adores them. It's another £80 on the nose for yours truly.

Similar comments apply to Ferguson. She is growing in confidence every week with even Cowell admitting, "You're reminding me of when Leona Lewis was on the show, and I saw somebody week by week turn into a star". I made the Leone Lewis reference a month ago!

At her current odds of [4.4] I believe it's worthwhile me backing Ferguson to another £140. The reality is then that if either One Direction of Ferguson win this year's show I'll finish in profit. Whether that's good enough to beat favourite-backer Jack Houghton (Cardle in Winner market, Belle Amie in 6th Elimination market) we'll have to wait and see.

This week's 7th Elimination market is a difficult one. In a normal world Wagner would be [1.2] to be eliminated but the fact that he's available to back at [4.0] shows the strength of support he has. Treyc Cohen is the [3.8] favourite but I think she'll survive. Even if she's in the bottom two she should be able to out-sing any of her rivals in a sing-off. That leaves Katie Waissel ([4.7]), Paije Richardson ([6.0]) or Grimshaw ([18.0]) to choose from. I'm in the need of some cash after Houghton's 'excellent' Belle Amie tip so let's have £20 on the latter.

Betting bank running total = £340
This week's recommendations

£140 BACK Rebecca Ferguson at [4.4] in Winner market
£80 BACK One Direction at [4.2] in Winner market
£20 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [18.0] in 7th Elimination market

Previous recommendations

£30 BACK Treyc Cohen at [19.0] in Winner market - OPEN
£100 BACK Rebecca Ferguson at [5.2] in Winner market - OPEN
£75 BACK One Direction at [5.8] in Winner market - OPEN
£75 BACK Simon Cowell at [3.5] in Winning Mentor market - OPEN
£100 BACK One Direction at [4.0] in Winner market - OPEN
£60 BACK Treyc Cohen at [4.7] in Girls market - OPEN

£30 BACK John Adeley at [7.6] in 3rd Elimination market - LOST
£30 BACK Wagner at [5.2] in 3rd Elimination market - LOST
£30 BACK Paije Richardson at [5.4] in 5th Elimination market - LOST
£30 BACK Paije Richardson at [5.4] in 6th Elimination market - LOST
£50 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [5.8] in Winner market - LOST
£50 BACK Aiden Grimshaw at [12.0] in Winner market - LOST

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1. Anonymous | 02 November 2010

   This sounds like trying to convince yourself mate.:) Matt's the bet you should have made. Even though the judges very deliberately talked him down he's still rated as the third best performance - and this was his off week. I'm sticking with him.

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