The Betfair Contrarian: Why Matt Cardle won't win The X Factor

X-Factor / The Betfair Contrarian / 27 October 2010 / 3

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Don't chill too much Mr Cardle, front runners never come first

"The first rule of reality TV show betting is to never bet on a favourite and that advice is particularly useful when it comes to the X Factor, as those who backed Rhydian Roberts in the 2007 final, which he went into as the [1.29] frontrunner, learned the hard way."

Hat wearing Essex boy, Matt Cardle is the [2.86] favourite to win the X Factor. Here are five reasons to oppose him.

With the girls outnumbering the boys seven to four on Strictly Come Dancing, The Contrarian is confident that his last reality TV show tip - on Strictly having a female winner - is as good as won, and it's time to start thinking about the X Factor. He's not sure if a girl is going to win yet, but there's one thing for certain - it won't be current favourite Matt Cardle. Oppose him at [2.86] - here's why...

The favourite rarely wins
The first rule of reality TV show betting is to never bet on a favourite and that advice is particularly useful when it comes to the X Factor, as those who backed Rhydian Roberts in the 2007 final, which he went into as the [1.29] frontrunner, learned the hard way. Another fairly staggering trend to be aware of is that in each of the last three series, an act that led the market midway through October has failed to even earn a podium position, with Niki Evans in 2007, Diana Vickers in 2008 and Danyl Johnson last year all eventually forced to settle for fourth.

Cardle is too good, too soon
Simon Cowell described Cardle's week three performance last Saturday as "absolutely incredible" and he received similarly positive comments from the other judges. The problem is that by starting so well, there is no room for improvement, making it impossible for him to "go on a journey" to endear him to viewers. The last three winners were all criticised by Cowell early on, serving to create a game-changing moment later in the series when he was forced to backtrack. Last year, Joe McElderry was urged in week three to "prove that you're a recording artist and not a cutesy performer", while Alexandra Burke was accused of being "a little bit copycat" in week two after renditions of Whitney Houston and Mariah Carey classics. Cowell was also initially hard on 2007 champion Leon Jackson, telling him in week two that "you're so afraid, that you're making the audience afraid".

He's too old...
Since Steve Brookstein won the first series, all five X Factor winners have been 21 or younger, with the swift slide into obscurity and cruise ship singing that Brookstein endured perhaps convincing producers that younger artists are likely to have more staying power in the charts and should be made the focal point of the show. Cardle is 27 and while the bizarre decision to raise the age of the overs category from 25 to 28 means that he's in with the kids, he's at least eight years older than the other survivors under Dannii Minogue's wing and surely too long in the tooth to triumph.

...and too southern
Another "since Steve" trend that's harder to explain is that each of the three male champs have hailed from north of the Watford Gap: Shayne Ward (Manchester), Jackson (Scotland) and McElderry (South Shields). Bizarrely, there have been four southern all-male acts in the top three since - Andy Abraham (London), Ben Mills (Kent), JLS (London) and last year's runner-up Olly Murs (Essex), who is arguably the guy with the most in common with Little Maplestead-based Cardle - yet no victors.

Cheryl Cole remains unbeaten as a mentor
True to form, the Contrarian prefers Dannii Minogue to Cheryl Cole but there's no question that the majority of X Factor voters, as well as the tabloids that give the show the most coverage such as The Sun and Daily Star are firmly behind the former Girls Aloud singer. The popularity of Ashley's ex is mirrored by her success, mentoring the winning contestant in her first two series and being the only judge with four still left this year. Two of those are in the top four of the winner betting: Rebecca Ferguson at 6.2 and Cher Lloyd at 13.5. Minogue has become almost an afterthought since Cole's arrival, with her only top-three finisher in the last two years being Stacey Solomon, who came third.

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Anonymous | 30 October 2010

THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A SINGER IN THE WHOLE OF THE X FACTOR TO COMPARE WITH MATT CARDLE. HE IS A ONE OFF AND EXCELLENT AND HE WILL BE THE ONE SINGER IN THE WHOLE OF THE X FACTOR HISTORY THAT HAS PULLED IN THE MOST VOTES
Jackie | 01 December 2010

Boring Matt (Pretendy Painter) or One Direction (Young and Cool), oh dear, hard choice!!!
Freya | 15 December 2010

Matt shouldn't of won the X factor. Rebecca had a far better voice than him, I could sit and listen to Rebecca singing for hours. But Matt, one song was enough for me. He should have stayed in essex!