X-Factor / The Betfair Contrarian / 15 December 2010 / 22

The Betfair Contrarian explains why Cardle and Cowell can be stopped and why he's desperate to recover some funds....

The Contrarian is rarely wrong when it comes to reality TV, so was naturally feeling a little sheepish when Matt Cardle defied him by winning The X Factor. He never accepts defeat without a fight though, and is delighted to spot an opportunity to make back his money and much more besides - by opposing Cardle to be Christmas number one at [1.08]. Here's why the singing painter will miss out...

Last year showed that Cowell can be stopped

Punters who are heavily swayed by where the money is going will look at the odds of [1.05] on Matt Cardle's single reaching number one and assume that it is a foregone conclusion, but last year's events suggest that would be a mistake. Then, the campaign to keep X Factor winner Joe McElderry off the top of the charts by getting people to buy Rage Against the Machine's Killing in the Name proved successful - ending a four year spell of festive domination for the show - and that was just as unexpected at the start of the week, when McElderry's The Climb traded at [1.17].

Facebook has spoken

Rage Against the Machine's ascent to number one was orchestrated by Facebook users and there is a well-supported attempt on the social networking juggernaut to engineer another huge upset. The single they are getting behind this year is The Trashmen's 1963 release Surfin' Bird, which returned to prominence two years ago after being the focal point of an episode of Family Guy, in which Peter Griffin obtained a copy of the track and brought it to everyone's attention. The bid to get it installed as the Christmas chart-topper is backed by a staggering 626,415 members of the site and it is already third according to early sales figures, a considerable achievement given that the media are only now picking up on its potential. They initially reported the Cage Against the Machine effort to outsell The X Factor with a cover of John Cage's silent number 4'33" as the main challenger. With more publicity to follow now that it is clear that Surfin' Bird is the chief rival, sales are certain to improve.

Surfin' Bird is a more viable contender

Word about the push to get Surfin' Bird to number one has spread slower than the Rage Against the Machine rally last year, in the mainstream media if not online at least, although it is arguably an even stronger challenger for top spot than Killing in the Name. It's an endearingly irritating novelty song in the same vein as some of the most memorable successes of years gone by - think Benny Hill (1971), Mr Blobby (1993) and Bob the Builder (2000). The Family Guy tie-in will help too because the show's popularity with teenagers and young adults surely makes it a more likely seller in those demographics than last year's more niche candidate. Radio 1 DJ Scott Mills has championed it and played it on his drive-time show.

Biffy Clyro fans are annoyed

As has been the case on all bar one occasion, The X Factor winner's song is a cover, but this time the ITV show's producers have really provoked fans of the original by changing the name of the Biffy Clyro hit they are using, from Many of Horror to When We Collide. The danger of angering advocates of other versions and the impact it can have on a chart battle was showcased two years ago when Jeff Buckley's Hallelujah cover was the second biggest seller behind Alexandra Burke's offering, kicking off the protest movement against X Factor Yuletide singles. There are over 40,000 Facebook users backing a campaign to get people to purchase the original instead and while that may not prove enough to shift more copies than Cardle (though it is currently destined for the top ten) it would mean fewer buyers for When We Collide, which would help the Surfin' Bird bid.

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1. Lokthar@Azuremyst | 15 December 2010

   B-B-B-B-B-ird is the word!!!

2. johnny | 15 December 2010

   Matt Cardle For Christmas No1 www.facebook.com/MattCardleXmasNo1

3. Jona Smith | 15 December 2010

   To be honest, what do you guys know? you thought joe mcelderry would win last year...

4. Matt Cardle sucks | 15 December 2010

   I like music, I like entertainment. Don't like X Factor though or any of the rubbish they like to pump out.

   Last year RATM got the xmas no1 and deservedly so for having spanned a decade with awesome music and gigs

   Surfin' Bird is yet another old song that deserves it's place amongst the classics, and whilst not to everybodies taste is surely far better than the tripe Simon Cowell and his fraudulent cronies will trott out.

   Down with X Factor it is crap!! LOL

5. Jo | 15 December 2010

   I don't know about you, but I've heard that bird is the word....

6. Daz | 15 December 2010

   I am sorry but this guy clearly knows nothing about the way the charts work. Sadly Cardle is so far in front already that he is unlikely to be beaten. At the end of Monday Cardle was already nearly 90000 sales infront of Surfin Bird and with the cd coming out today I think it will only increase. Its worth adding that at the moment Surfin Bird is struggling to get to even number 2. Everyone should ignore the rubbish that is written above.

7. christina | 15 December 2010

   superb vocalist man , love him i do , good luck in everything you matt, big hugs xxx

8. Jessica | 15 December 2010

   B-B--B-B-Bird, Bird, Bird, Bird is the word..

9. Robbie | 15 December 2010

   oh haven't you heard?....

10. Damo | 15 December 2010

    I thought the X factor was meant to be a singing show. This being the case then why did Matt win, he was terrible with all his final songs. None of them were in tune and they were flat. The ONLY reason his single sounds in tune is because they have edited it with computers. Can you people really see this guy being anywhere in a couple of years. I think not.

11. Jamie | 15 December 2010

    Daz, everyone will have bought Matt Cardle's single on monday because the hype and publicity had been surrounding it for months, Surfin Bird has got this much support already without any prior media coverage. We are just starting to get recognised and we are snowballing rapidly.
    Its about time that everybody knew The Bird Is The Word!

12. Jimbo | 15 December 2010

    Sorry but there's only ONE word this xmas! And that word is 'BIRD'!!

13. John | 15 December 2010

    Multi layered complex love song by a great band, or a karaoke shoutfest that would be bettered in most pubs? Mona Lisa or Etchasketch? Its a no brainer, and therein lies the problem - X Factors target audience!

14. Anonymous | 15 December 2010

    Bird Is The WOOOOOOOORD!!!

15. Mike | 15 December 2010

    Whether Cardle makes it to number one or not doesn't really concern me. What does concern me is that whoever wins The X Factor immediately has an excellent chance of bagging a Christmas number one with a poor cover version of a non-seasonal song.

    I love the X Factor, but something needs to be done now about it spoiling the battle for the Christmas number one. Either the show should move to January or whoever wins shouldn't be allowed to release a single until after Christmas.

    The battle to be Christmas number one used to be entertainment in itself with most major artists releasing some kind of seasonal tune. But now they don't bother because they know they have very little chance of topping the charts. Something definitely needs to be done.

    Go and buy a compilation of Christmas songs and look at the song list. The immediate thing you will notice is that there isn't a song from the last decade on most Christmas albums. The reason being that there hasn't been any good Christmas songs since the X Factor commenced. Shame really.

16. Letmelogon3 | 15 December 2010

    for those that say cardle is to far ahead, well that means nothing at this point!

    campaigns like this can take a few days to spread the word but can see numbers rise very quickly.

    besides people may be waiting for this months payday before buying (both my mum and sister will get their pay on friday) or waiting until late in the week to buy a copy/gift copies so as not to give the cardle fans a chance to counter the bird by buying extra copies

17. birdybooboos | 16 December 2010

    Bearing in mind that there has been a total lack of acknowledgement by the media I think Surfin Bird is doing really well.

    Hmm now has the powers at be "paid off" the media after the humiliation of last years defeat? Resulting in the number 2 place last year struggling with his current sales not even making into the top 40.

    Also shows that it is unfair as people could pre-order the "winners" single prior to finding out the winner indicating someone somewhere knows more than they were letting on.

    1. Lack of Publicity
    2. Pre-orders questionable
    3. Only have a facebook page ......

    To get to number 3 midweek with no support I'm sorry but no matter how much someone paid me I would never infringe basic rights to freedom of speech just for extra money.

    If OfCom and the Official Charts had any sense they would look into the matter further. When the "race for number 1" is mentioned every campaign is mentioned apart form the bird is that because they are in third place and the publicity could help reach the dream of finally getting the message through that we have all had enough of X-factor (fix factor.

    Bird is the word !

18. cookie | 16 December 2010

    The bird is the unoquivocal word this HAS to be number 1 STICK IT TO THE MAN (the man being simon cowell)

19. Big bird | 18 December 2010

    Surely you've heard?

20. mike | 19 December 2010

    long has the day gone where you would buy a record, album or cd because you like it now we all have to be told what to buy people on face book are becoming no better than simon cowell. to think back ozzy and kelly osbourne re released changes in time for christmas. just look what happened there they came in at number 2 to the biggest bag of rubbish you could ever think of. I think since then i couldnt care less who gets the number 1 for christmas. But it will be a case of people with nothing else in there life but face book and being sheep ready to be hearded

21. alan | 19 December 2010

    mike the members of facebook have nothing to gain if surfin bird reaches number one, therefore you couldn't be more wrong. simon cowell will make millions from having no talent or discernable skills apart from calling people bad artists. simon cowell is ruining the UK music industry

22. sw23 | 26 February 2011

    hahahahahahahahaha matt got the number one and he deserved it and surfin' bird was only 3 yaaaaay matt!!!! <3

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