Strictly Come Dancing / The Betfair Contrarian / 12 October 2010 /

Never one to keep his opinions to himself, the Betfair Contrarian tells us why the trend of males winning Strictly is about to come to an end.

Like most red-blooded men, the Contrarian loves a spangly bolero jacket almost as much as he loves a stat, but while four of the last five Strictly Come Dancing winners have been men (the frontrunner in the betting a fortnight into this year's competition is TV presenter Matt Baker), Pamela Stephenson and Kara Tointon have started strongly enough this year to make him think that a woman will take the 2010 trophy at [2.24]. Here's more...

It's time for a female winner

The last two winners have both been male - Tom Chambers in 2008 and Chris Hollins last year - but don't mistake that for proof that men are favoured by voters. During that time half of the finalists, and 60 per cent of the top-five finishers, were female.
Additionally, in seven of the eight series to date, including this one, a male celebrity has been the first to fall as soon as all contestants have been at risk of elimination (in series four to seven there was a gender split in the opening weeks). There have already been three female champions and the likelihood of a fourth being crowned this December is boosted by the fact no one gender has ever provided the winner of three successive series.

The Blue Peter curse will hinder Matt Baker...

The early favourite is Countrylife presenter Matt Baker at [3.1] because in addition to scoring two 31s (out of 40), he has appeared confident and been pretty funny in his interviews and training videos. He's a former Blue Peter presenter though and their reality TV track record is one of near misses and non-events. Gethin Jones finished third in series five of Strictly Come Dancing, Katy Hill was a runner-up on athletics show The Games, Tim Vincent and Zoe Salmon came eighth and fifth respectively on ITV's Dancing on Ice and Anthea Turner was third out in the first ever Celebrity Big Brother.

Pamela Stephenson has been a surprise hit

The star of the first two weeks has been Pamela Stephenson, topping the leaderboard and showing great chemistry with partner James Jordan, who has never previously triumphed - a positive on Strictly as no professional has ever won twice. Her price is still [10.5], presumably due to punters doubting that a woman of 60 can take the trophy, yet both her Latin and ballroom dances wowed the judges. She also has famous family in her corner (like last year's victor Chris Hollins, whose father John played for and managed Chelsea) in the form of husband Billy Connolly.

Two trends favour Kara Tointon

After achieving the joint-highest week two score, Kara Tointon is the second favourite at [5.8] and has a number of things in her favour. She is best known for playing Dawn Swann in Eastenders and five actresses who have appeared in the BBC soap have finished in the top five before, including series two winner Jill Halfpenny, whose character Kate, like Dawn - had a relationship with Phil Mitchell. Also in her favour are rumours of romance between her and partner Artem Chigvinsev. Similar murmurings certainly didn't hinder Natasha Kaplinsky and Brendan Cole, who won series one.

Ann Widdecombe could be this year's John Sergeant

The biggest cheers from the live audience so far have been reserved for Ann Widdecombe, who has adopted John Sergeant's 2008 role by being entertainingly bad, with the added bonus of being more adept at sparring with the judges. Sergeant made the final seven two years ago before quitting out of fear of winning and making a mockery of the competition. The fact Widdecombe is shorter at [55.0] than Patsy Kensit, who scored 28 to the ex-politician's 12 on Saturday shows that a Sergeant-like surge past superior competitors can't be dismissed. It's even easier for poor dancers to progress now because the dance-off, which granted the judges final say on which of the two lowest-scoring performers (after the judge and viewer rankings have been combined) to axe, has been scrapped.

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