Strictly Come Dancing / Alan Dudman / 19 November 2010 /

The contestants are off to the seaside for this weekend's Strictly action but who will be top of the tower? And is the ballroom ripe for some 40's? Alan Dudman selects the best bets...

Seven down and eight to go, and still the market believes Matt Baker [2.74] will be the winner. Scott Maslen had a Eureka moment last Saturday (more on that later) and he is [3.25], whilst the excellent Kara Tointon is still too big in price at [6.20]. Only these three can win it with their dancing, whilst Ann Widdecombe at [12.50] is still floating around with those crazy, crazy moves.

Week seven is the biggest in the Strictly calender, as the dancers head to the home of the ballroom - Blackpool. Home of donkeys, bingo, rock and errr that's it. I would use tales of a rather epic stag weekend in the north west many years ago, a tour in which I emulated David Boon's drinking record en route to England by plane with a silly amount of alchopops in a nightclub playing 'Dirty Cash'. But I can't use those tales, as they were in the article for the Blackpool jaunt last year.

Blackpool has been scene of two perfect scores in the past, Jill Halfpenny's Jive and Ali Bastian's Waltz. We could be set for a 40!!

The contenders tackle just the two dances this Saturday, the American Smooth and the Samba, which makes punting slightly easier, as comparing strengths in same routines always helps. The American smooth ties together the four
ballroom disciplines - the Waltz, the Tango, the Viennese Waltz and the Foxtrot. Some of the dancers are far better in hold and will once again bring out the beauty and the elegance in the stars. The judges allow three lifts for their routine - and it's a chance to wow the viewers with some stunners.

The Samba is the other dance, and for me the trickier. It has to be bang in line with rhythm and timing, whilst achieving fun, flirting and exuberance. Hips need to be swinging, and the need to bring the element of the carnival atmosphere is a must.

On to Scott's Eureka moment.

Maslen did something last Saturday that nobody does - he danced alone. His jive was absolutely electric and rightly notched 39 points. But the moment of magic was the fact he was left alone to dance. His partner shut the door and left him to it, and he didn't need the pro. That makes him winner material. Scott is [3.10] for top scorer in Blackpool and he has the Samba. Scott's worst dance was the Rumba - which has that Samba feel, but he's got the two top scores of the series with two 39s.

Kara's American Smooth this Saturday should be hot. I think she is better in hold, and along with Artem they make a beautiful couple. There could be a couple of scary lifts, which they are not afraid to tackle as we have seen before (and
Artem does love a lift). This could have the wow factor if she irons out the tiniest mistakes. Potential for a 40.

The other frontrunner Matt Baker is [3.25] for the top score this week, and needs to get his Latin hips swinging for his Samba. I love his partner Alionia, and they are final material. He will trade odds-on in the winner market, but I still think he needs to make up ground on Scott and Kara. Matt's an excellent dancer, and scores of 35, 34, 35, 35 tell us so.

Pamela is back in hold in Blackpool and it will suit her. She is very precise, has great arms and pivots for the American Smooth and might be a back-to-lay at [7.00] for top score.

Felicity (and the annoying twerp Vincent) have the AS too, and she is relieved to be back ballrooming, although the market has Felicity to ge the chop at [2.12]. Felicity hasn't got a score above 30 and might have run her course.

Ann Widdecombe [7.40] and Patsy Kensit [5.00] might just find themselves in the bottom two, and Widdecombe would be a shock. Those two have the Samba, although Ann's could be anything.

Recommended bets: Back Felicity to get eliminated @ [2.14] or bigger
Back Kara and Scott top score [2.95] and [3.25]
Back-to-lay Pamela in top score market @ [7.00]

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