After a successful Movie Week, Alan Dudman looks ahead to Saturday's betting opportunities, and has a trio of wagers planned for the latest Strictly Come Dancing show...
"Burke's routine will be super-fast to a super-fast song. Remember, this was Ore Oduba's breakthrough dance last year."
Just as the arrowsmith Peter Manley is known as 'one dart', I went with the one bet last week on Simon Rimmer making the bottom two. Of course he made it - well he was a pretty short price let's be honest! And as the saying goes in sport on TV - job done.
There are plenty of other famous Rimmers you know. Jimmy (of Aston Villa), Arnold (of Red Dwarf), and Kevin (Wimmer) the Austrian footballer . I fear our Sunday Brunch presenter might not be one of them however - and he could be heading back to the lunchtime abyss of that sofa anytime soon.
Simon danced-off against the Rev. Richard Coles last week, and it's the first time Rimmer must have trodden all over hot coles. OK, not so hot, the Rev was awful in a strangely weird Flash Gordon routine, but his scores were so low it was a no-brainer. All the judges voted for Rimmer.
High scores meanwhile came from Aston Merrygold (a week too late for the column), and he blitzed the leaderboard with an epic 35 point Cha Cha. Judge Craig Revel H said afterwards: "You really are very good aren't you?" Why he only gave him an 8 I will never know - he got 9s from the other judges. Well done Aston.
His price remains around the [3.90] in the Winner market, although at [1.20] for Top Male, it looks game over for the latter.
The big mover was wee Joe McFadden (one of our antepost picks) with his Cossack-driven Dr Zhivago routine. He was up ten points from the previous week for their Viennese Waltz - astonishingly the first 30-plus routine for his partner Katya. Actually not that astonishing, she was with Ed Balls last year.
Debbie McGee was rather good again with a silky touch on the floor that befits someone who handles those endless magic handkerchiefs from the pocket. She collected 29, whilst Alexandra Burke's cutesy My Fair Lady song gave her a 33. Gemma Atkinson was dressed as a Cat (a real one, not Peter Bonetti), and her 31 points from the Charleston was her best dance yet.
The Hollyoaks' star has drawn the short straw for Saturday, though. A Coldplay song. Unlucky.
Who Dances What This Week?
I was seven days too late to the Aston high score party (having previously tipped him as number one for the previous show), but we'll have to give him the swerve for this Saturday and the Highest Scorer market - on the basis that ITT's Ian Waite said that this could be the first dance he could potentially struggle with.
Of course those training videos are from quite early in the week, but Waite's an expert on these things.
Burke's [2.02] price is exactly the same as Aston's, but she's got a Jive coming up to Proud Mary by Tina Turner - which is a lot better than Steamy Window by the same artist, truly one of the worst songs to have graced the 1980s, and I bought Superbrat's Chalk Dust on single.
I also purchased a Simply Red CD once in the 90s, but I don't tell anyone about that.
Burke's routine will be super-fast to a super-fast song. Remember, this was Ore Oduba's breakthrough dance last year.
And what about Magic McGee? And what about her spectacular training gear? The Cha Cha coming up is to the Shoop Shoop Song - which was number one for what seemed like an eternity. A price of around [3.50] awaits MM.
In other news, Mollie King was an improver last week with her 30 in the Sound Of Music. Her and AJ are a bit too sickly sweet, which could be a problem for a Salsa that needs to be, well, raunchy. You need the figure of eight hips for this, so think Fontwell racetrack.
I mentioned Joe earlier and his Dr Zhivago number, he swaps that for a Cha Cha this Saturday dancing to You Keep Me Hanging On by Human Nature.
Come on, it's not a Human Nature song, it's the Supremes. I'd even take Kim Wilde's version.
I watched Joe's training videos this week, and he's a tremendous face-puller and gurner. Watch out Brian Conley.
Who Faces Elimination?
The obvious one here is to go in again with Rimmer at pretty decent odds of [2.20] in the 3rd Elimination market. However, he got 19 last week and there are a few others who are scoring less (Ruth Langsford and Charlotte Hawkins spring to mind) to make him a safer bet in the Bottom Two again at around [2.0]. If he meets either of those, or even Brian, he still might survive.
His dance to a Barry Manilow song gives me no confidence, though. We need Botafogos Rimmer, not jogging.
Conley has got to come into the mix for the Bottom Two having previously resided in that area to luckily see off Chizzy Akudolu in the first week. There's been a lot made of Conley's upcoming panto job in the press, and if he gets a low score here we'll struggle to see anyone behind him on that front. "He's behind you."
See, it almost works. Oh yes it does.
The comedian has a Paso Doble - not the ideal dance for a funnyman. His 3rd Elimination price was [3.60] on Thursday evening - which was a bit bigger than I was expecting.
The Lowest Scorer market here is fascinating, as dear old Ruth is so wooden that she is giving the acting skills of Jean-Claude Van Damme a run for their money. Her James Bond routine last Saturday was more Brooke Bond, and Anton Du Beke finally made me laugh last week when he called for the dry ice to go up to her waist to hide her footwork.
Anton's strike-rate is probably the same as mine.
I like Ruth, but the daytime TV queen has a Tango - a rise and fall dance. If we can get anywhere near [3.50] on that we are doing well, but she might be safe again as people have voted her in. Anton said: "She just needs to walk this week." Start low Anton, start low.
Her fellow breakfast TV star Charlotte is also struggling. Her 17 points from a Top Gun Tango received some mixed reviews it's fair to say. She danced to "Danger Zone" last week, which is quite apt, as Hawkins hasn't got going with this malarkey yet. She's got a Jive and the pace of that out of hold is a big cause for concern. A price of around [4.0] could tempt me.
Susan Calman produced an epic Wonder Woman routine, she'll be safe this Saturday, so will Jonnie with an upcoming American Smooth. Dawood meanwhile might struggle with the rotations for his Viennese Waltz.
It's 'Three Darts' Manley this weekend.
Week Four Recommended Bets
Back Alexandra Burke as Highest Scorer @ [2.02]
Back Brian Conley Bottom Two @ [2.80]
Back Ruth Langsford as Lowest Scorer @ [3.0]
*Strictly airs this Saturday on BBC One at 18:35 to 20:40 with in-play markets available, with the results show Sunday at 19:15 to 20:00.