Strictly Come Dancing / Editor / 27 November 2009 /

Bad dance choice could spell curtains for Cassidy says Andy Richmond in his look at the Strictly odds

Casualty follows "Strictly" in the Saturday night schedules but perhaps the BBC could save us and themselves a few quid and combine the two programmes. Series 7 of SCD is starting to resemble A&E, already injuries have seen the departure of Jade, an aborted rumba from Leila and now one of the market leaders is on the injury list causing some jitters in the betting.

The latest casualty is Ali Bastian who reportedly injured her foot on Monday during rehearsals - that caused a blip in the outright market with the actress shuffling out to a high of [6.0]. Despite that scare it looks like Ali will dance on Saturday but she has missed significant practice time after first fears that she has fractured her foot were allayed.

Ricky Whittle still holds sway at the top of the market and looks solid at around [1.75] while his main rival Ali, having got back into training now, has settled at around [3.35] - behind those two it's anyones guess but it will take further injuries to both Bastian and Whittle to see one of the other three winning and last week's scores saw that duo out in front once again - the only contestants to top 30 points, surely the benchmark at this stage of the programme.

There's a twist in this week's programme - with not only new dances being showcased but also a judged group dance and that little lot throws a different light on how this weeks voting might pan out. The new dances are the Charleston and Rock "n" Roll - never seen before in SCD. The former will be attempted by Ali, Chris Hollins and Laila Rouass leaving the latter to Ricky and Natalie Cassidy.

Those choices look key to me and I must say that I'm surprised at the choice made by one of the remaining contestants - Natalie, the last time I saw Rock "n" Roll danced well it was quick, athletic and vibrant, and those are words that I won't ever be using describing Natalie's dancing - she definitely better in her slower paces. I'm sure there will be a few lifts and throws in the routine and let's face it, Nat's not a small girl and what a good mate of mine would call a "big old unit" for Vincent to conjure with. The rest of them should cope in varying degrees with Ricky W again in pole position with his R "n" R and I think he'll be well suited by this fast paced dance which will show off his athletic ability and dancing versatility.

The further twist sees a judged group Viennese Waltz. All five remaining couples will take to the dancefloor at the same time to perform and will be judged and allocated points. This will take a few out of their comfort zone and could favour Vincent, Anton and Brian whilst the two male celebrities will have to lead a largely unchoreographed routine - difficult but not impossible. As a guide I looked back at the VW scores throughout the series - of course we all know that Ali got the perfect 40 but Ricky scored a very respectable 36 and it was Natalie who struggled despite most people thinking she is safe with anything classical - 27 was her score. Rock "n" Roll and the VW could prove a lethal mix for the former Walford dweller.

We've seen some great head-to-heads over the past six series of SCD and injuries permitting this is bubbling up into another great one between Ali and Ricky and I'm sure that they'll sail though on Saturday. That still leaves some interesting betting fare for us to get stuck into - the image or is it a nightmare that I can't get my head around is Vincent, Nat and Rock "n" Roll - this could be a car crash moment and I can feel judge Craig getting his sneer and low scoring paddle ready - four or less is where this could be going from the irritating whining Aussie.

Saturday looks a straight shootout again between the Whittle/Bastian combo but behind them a lot could depend on the dance selection and judges' comments. Despite being favourites to go Laila and Anton are well placed to pull off a surprise. They have the advantage of a male lead in the group VW, the Charleston won't faze and they seem to have gelled now after earlier contretemps. The strugglers look to be the popular Chris who has yet to win the judges over and they may not be by his Charleston which was eclectic to say the least when I saw his training video and he has to lead in the group VW - he needs the public more than ever this week.

It's a week of change in Strictlyland - new dances, judged group dances the more things change the more they stay the same and despite the scares we move another week nearer the Ricky and Ali dance-off.

Week 11 Suggested Bets: Bottom two combo back Chris/Natalie @ [6.6]
Back Lowest Individual Score - 4 or less @ [5.0]
11th Elimination back Natalie @ [3.5]

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