Strictly Come Dancing / Alan Dudman / 08 October 2010 /

As the dancers prepare to strut their stuff for Saturday's live show, Alan Dudman assesses the field and illuminates some intriguing trading opportunities.

If we weren't totally sure about who was the best dancer of this year's Strictly contestants, Matt Baker's double back-flip to start his routine last week offered conclusive evidence. Rumours of a reported similar stunt for ancient pairing Ann Widdecombe and Paul Daniels, however, appear wide of the mark. Baker though, was very good.

The first show really lays down the marker for the cans and the cannots. And the market has sufficiently sorted the wheat from the chaff already. Matt is favourite at [3.20], with Kara not far behind [5.10]. Backers however are not overly fond of Paul Daniels, with the magician now out to [350.00].

This Saturday's live show starts at 17:45, and remember the points from the first week will be carried over and added to the scores this weekend. If you are betting on scores, take note that the judges appeared very conservative in their points giving. Good dances last week were getting 6s and 7s, where as later on in the competition they'll be getting 8s and 9s. Remember Chris Hollins was an average 25 point scorer last season, as he got nearer the final he was hitting 30 plus on a regular basis.

Heavy hitters in the points department from Friday and Saturday's dances were Matt (31), Pamela (31), Kara (30), Scott (29) and Gavin (28). Low scorers were Paul Daniels (16), Ann (17), Goldie (20) and Shilts (21).

The trading angles at the moment for the winners are obvious. Although Matt Baker's price has shrunk after his wonderful cha cha cha, he clearly is as good as Ricky Whittle (if not better) from last season. Whittle made the final and traded at massive long-odds on. Matt will go to [1.70] I am sure, and there's an obvious chance to make a profit out of him. Kara missed a couple of steps in her routine last Saturday, but her dancing skills are mustard. At [5.10], her trading potential is enormous. A lay-off of [2.00] is realistic as she will go far.

The big shock was Pamela. She revelled (no relation to Craig) in the limelight and thoroughly enjoyed her routine. Yes she had an easy waltz, so I am looking forward to her being tested with a salsa this Saturday. Pam clearly wants to be on the show which is more than can be said of Patsy. Pamela is currently [20.00] in the winner market.

Kensit looked thoroughly miserable during a very flat waltz last Saturday. She got 22 points, which was a couple too many. Having appeared on This Morning recently, she revealed she hasn't had time to train too much and didn't even know what routine she has this week. Patsy could be in trouble in the points department. We all know that training and practice makes a good routine, but Kensit has been busy with Holby City. Her Week One Elimination price is vaguely interesting at [10.40].

The contestants to get at in the Week One Elimination market for this Saturday are Paul Daniels [3.55], Peter Shilton [3.20], Goldie [5.70] and the big outsider Michelle [26.00].

Although Ann Widdecombe was useless in her waltz last Saturday, the crowd loved her and she got the biggest roar. She and Anton's salsa will achieve a potential record low score, but the public won't get rid of her.

Paul Daniels can't dance either, but he's not so likeable, and his attempted wisecracks have backfired. His 'funnies' on SCD Take Two this week were fighting through the tumbleweeds. His partner Ola is the reigning champ, and she must be seething at getting lumbered with the magician. He isn't so popular, nor are the 'jokes' , his dancing is a non-event which makes him bottom two material. And Daniels
is probably not bothered.

Peter Shilton was very bad last Saturday but at least he was genuine and honest. I'll be amazed if he lasts for three episodes though.

Goldie expressed doubts midweek over his salsa coming up. I have doubts about Goldie. His cha cha cha was an embrassment, and anyone who is a self-proclaimed joker usually isn't funny. The DJ is annoying and his 20 point effort from last Saturday puts him in the mix to go.

I have thrown in Michelle as she was nominated early last week as a first week elimination, the angle with her is that she is from USA, and the Brits tend to vote for their own.

Recommended bets:

Week One Elimination: Back Goldie @ [5.50]
Back Michelle @ [20.00] (advised last week)

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