Strictly Come Dancing / Jack Houghton / 06 December 2009 /

Mr Houghton has managed to just about break even after 17 weeks of betting and now he's waltzing on to the Strictly Come Dancing gambling dancefloor with grand plans of big winners

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

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A third of a way through and it's time to report back to City investors. The original plan was for a glossy brochure and associated webcast; where I could outline performance to date and field questions from the thousands - international, institutional and individual - who follow the advice herein. But the editorial tightwads at betting.betfair would not stump up the cash. So here's where we stand.

Four months gone. 49 bets placed. 14 different sports/events. And, from a starting bank of £1,000, we are currently making a £6 loss. But hang on there just a second. Two bets are yet to be settled - Roger Hiorns to win the Turner Prize (which he will on Monday) and Gordon Brown to be booted out late next summer - which will send the Betting Challenge bank soaring into profitability. And anyway, these are tough economic times, so I'm happy to call what's gone before a warm-up - a dry-run to prove systems and processes before kicking off for real.

It is then with a renewed sense of va va voom that I handle the ball that is Strictly Come Dancing, readying myself to fire home a profitable punt. At [3.7], Chris Hollins is a sequinned-shoe-in to win the series. I'm having £20 on. Whilst a Hollins' win would be no victory for dancing, it is clear he is by far the most popular contestant left. On three occasions he has scored equal to, or lower than, a celebrity in the dance-off; yet has never faced that ignominy. Bastian has, and she consistently struggles with anything requiring a bit of wiggle (a relation of the fleckle); meaning she is no certainty to outscore Hollins when it really matters. And Whittle - despite being the best dancer on display - is just not popular: twice finding himself in the bottom two.

Sunday night will see the BBC Sports Personality of the Year award handed out to yet another devoid-of-personality sporting hero. Although this year might actually break with convention. Amidst the spectacle of the BBC trying to fill an evening's show with nano-second clips begged from other broadcasters, sandwiched by mindless and uncomfortable chat, there's a good chance Jenson Button - an actual personality - will win. So I'm having £30 on at [2.1].

The popularity of Formula One consistently amazes. Despite numerous attempts to force myself to like it, it has remained, for me, much like calves liver: an unfathomable taste. Yet a quick glance back at previous SPOTY results will tell you there are plenty who disagree. Let's face it, any sport that can twice put forward Nigel Mansell in a personality vote - and win - must have a groundswell of public opinion in its favour. Crikey, even that drivelling little daddy's dweeb Hamilton has managed a couple of second-place finishes, so Button - dashing, eloquent and debonair - must be a certainty.

As my last visit to planet football provided a winner, it makes sense to return now. Last week, had I not been busy with the Turner Prize, I was going to suggest Manchester United were overpriced at [3.8] to win the Barclays Premier League. I was annoyed then when I saw them close the gap on Chelsea to two points. A value bet gone I thought. Well not as it turns out. Inexplicably, the weekend results have barely seen United shorten. At [3.35], I'm having £40 on. Those odds are being held artificially high by back-four injury worries: worries that will, in a couple of weeks, have disappeared. If they can cobble something together against Villa and Wolves - and there's no reason to think the back-four left at the end of the West Ham game can't handle things just fine - that price is going to look very big.

This week's bets:
£20 BACK Chris Hollins at [3.7] to win Strictly Come Dancing.
£30 BACK Jenson Button at [2.1] to win SPOTY.
£40 BACK Manchester United at [3.35] to win Barclays Premier League.

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