/ Chicken Dinner / 11 April 2008 /

A long time ago, in campaign briefing rooms far, far away... the Blonde decided to take on the Red. So where are we in Mayor Wars?

It's a little less than three weeks until Thursday 1st May, when "London", the press solemnly informs us, "decides". But so far, the campaign has been the political version of one of those cycling pursuit races, with the early stages of the contest spent wobbling around, one rider shadowing the other, neither doing very much, until the end draws near and they explode into a sprint for the finish.

But politicians being steeped in the arts of crafty plotting, and advised by the finest professional schemers, it is safe to assume that this laid back approach is no accident. Only surprise has been that Boris has confounded all pre-election expectations by leading in most of the opinion polls. There might be some disagreement as to how wide the gap is, but Boris leapt ahead of Ken around March 15 on the Betfair betting market, and has stayed there ever since. He is currently 8-13, while Ken's chances have been revived a little at 13-8 but is it possible to pick a winner from here...

Strategy
Both candidates have adopted a similar approach - keep very still and let the other guy make the mistakes. Ken clearly believes that he is only candidate actually capable of doing the job. "The only real thing [Boris] has ever managed is a small Right-wing magazine, where the most difficult decision was where to take the staff for lunch," he scoffed.
The Johnson campaign team meanwhile seems to feel that if it can just keep Boris's foot out of his mouth, then enough political murk will seep from Ken's past to make their candidate the only plausible alternative.

The Polls
The numbers have skittered around a little, but they have kept the betting lively. A YouGov poll published by the Evening Standard this week had Boris 13 points out in front. Another YouGov poll published by the Guardian last week had Boris' lead at a single point. Wednesday's Ipsos-Mori poll for Unison gave Ken a one point lead (and suddenly the Mayor cared what the polls said again).

Policy
Still something of a mystery. Both candidates speak of the importance of doing something about crime, housing, education and transport, but without specifying what or how much it might cost. Ken proposes to cut speed limits to 20 mph on some residential streets, Boris hates the bendy bus, but both have maintained a near-Trappist silence on their real plans for the capital.

The Gaffes
This is a category Boris was expected to dominate, but he's largely managed to control himself. His only big mistake so far came when he told a meeting organised by the homeless charity Shelter that he lived in a huge house worth "shedloads of money." Otherwise, his remarks have been uncharacteristically bland.

The Graft
This is a category Ken has all to himself. Murky donations from property developers. Close aides forced to leave following accusations of cronyism and sexual impropriety. Rumours that he is deliberately suppressing information about the true cost of the Olympics. This side of Ken Livingstone has done all the headline grabbing.

The Verdict?
There's still all to play for. As both sides crank up the level of activity, and with it the pressure on the other team, something will have to give. The 'Boris Gaffe Factory' is sure to turn out a few gems for the media to devour and Ken's instinct for a good electoral scrap certainly means sooner or later he'll come out swinging.

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