/ Andrew Hughes / 03 January 2008 / 6

Politics betting expert Andrew Hughes on why the London Mayoral election is now a real contest

From Garry Bushell to the front man from Right Said Fred, the roll call of candidates for this year's London Mayoral Election looks like the cast list for a particularly gruesome pantomime. And taking second billing in this production is everyone's favourite bumbling Tory, the man with the haystack hairstyle from Henley on Thames, dear old Boris Johnson. Surely, it was assumed, his candidacy was something of a joke, a natural extension of his penchant for publicity and ultimately destined for glorious failure, with a few laughs along the way. A YouGov poll last November seemed to confirm that, giving Ken Livingstone a comfortable lead over his Tory challenger.

But the publication last night of a new poll from Yougov has opened a cage full of cats in Trafalgar square. The results show that Johnson trails Livingstone by a single percentage point. Suddenly, we have a contest.

Of course, the signs were there for those with finely tuned political antennae. The Livingstone camp has recently launched a concerted attack on Johnson's character, including suggestions of racism and dragging up the fact that he provided a character reference for the disgraced Lord Black. For Livingstone to be getting so personal so early, with polling date still five months away suggests that the Mayor's private polling has been telling him for a while what the Yougov poll has now confirmed: that Johnson is in with a serious chance of winning this election. For the record, Yougov have Livingstone on 45% and Johnson on 44% with Lib Dem candidate Brian Paddick in danger of being squashed altogether on a paltry 8%.

The excellent article by Betfair experts Chicken Dinner on 6th December highlighted transport, health and policing as the key issues for voters and Boris has hit those areas well with his proposals to trial CCTV on buses and redress the inequalities in health spending between London boroughs. All good popular stuff. Of course, with Boris for every political hit, there is a swing and a miss. Back in November he called the officers involved in the killing of Jean Charles de Menezes 'trigger happy'. Last month he sponsored an early day motion in the Commons deploring the prospect of BNP Assembly members having the casting vote on the budget, an eventuality that is actually impossible.

But those basic errors are likely to be rare from now on. Johnson has completely overhauled his election team, drafting in strategist James McGrath and Australian Lynton Crosby, master of the dark electoral arts. His campaign looks set to move up a gear in the next few weeks. If they can project a populist, plain speaking and occasionally amusing Boris and keep the buffoonery to a minimum, there is every chance of a Tory mayor come 2nd May 2008.

Surprisingly, it appears that the market has barely reacted at all to the YouGov poll. On Wednesday night Livingstone was on [1.54] with a Johnson victory available at [2.72], a price that might look very generous in weeks to come.

As a footnote, the resurgence of the Johnson campaign is disastrous for third candidate, Brian Paddick. He has put the boot into Boris this week, calling him a 'clown' but to little avail. He is marooned on 7% in the polls and so the current odds of [20.0] should not appeal, as it would take a political miracle for him to close a 37% gap. And if you're one of those people who think you can picture Garry Bushell as London Mayor, and are tempted by the [80.0] on offer about 'Any Other Candidate' please check the dosage of your medication.

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1. Don't Patronise Me | 03 January 2008

   Surely the fact that the Betfair market hasn't reacted to this reported Boris catchup suggests that the polls are, well, frankly wrong. Betfair markets are right more often than not in the areas of politics (and specials generally).

   All in all I think Boris has a lot more work to do than a 1 point gap suggests if he is to stand any chance whatsoever of catching Ken by May.

2. Andrew Hughes | 03 January 2008

   Thanks for the comments.

   I realise that the Betfair markets are often an accurate indicator, but they key here is the phrase you used, 'more often than not'. Betfair, will prove to be accurate over a long period of time, taking in many thousands of events. But in the short term there will be instances where the market is wrong and the shrewd punter can capitalise on those instances. If you believe that the market is always and in all circumstances a perfect reflection of the true probabilities, then there would be no point in betting at all, since you could do no better than break even in the long term.

   In this case, at an early stage of the campaign, I am happy that the specialist pollsters of Yougov are providing an accurate picture of a close contest and am also happy that the way the relative campaigns are going indicates that the odds should be a lot closer than they are currently. If you take a different view, that's not a problem, it would be a dull world if we all held the same opinion

3. Andrew H | 03 January 2008

   Now that's what you call a multiple post!

4. Richard | 05 January 2008

   I think the key form indicator currently is that the word on the street and in the pubs is that Ken Livingstone is tired and past his sell-by date, while Boris Johnson is young, very clever, and offers new inspiration to Londoners. The other plus for Boris Johnson is that he is popular with the young voters, so often no-shows in many elections.

5. Joe | 06 January 2008

   Hmmm... "Boris Johnson is young, very clever, and offers new inspiration to Londoners" that sounds like it's straight from a Boris Johnson press release. I'm a young(ish) voter and there's no way I'd vote for the blonde buffoon

6. Kevin | 06 January 2008

   I've never actually voted for Livingstone (in fact i don't know anybody who actually does) but you have to say he is a political phenomenon! Think it would be a major upset should Johnson triumph.

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