Other / Gary Boswell / 30 November 2010 /

Gary Boswell ran into a meteorological geek as part of his research into a White Christmas who spoke of a temporary return to a mini Ice Age. Back in the real world, there's a cracking bet on one of the UK's cities to be white on Christmas Day.

The snow is falling. More importantly, we've just moved into the 30 day bandwidth for Met Office advance weather forecasts. It's time to consider our 2010 White Christmas bets!

In preparation, I went to a seminar on cyclical recurrence and how to apply this advantageously to betting markets. In the bar afterwards I was in conversation with a Worzel Gummidge lookalike (how do I always attract these characters in the bar after seminars?) who was convinced the current cold snap (and last winter in the UK) was pre-cursor to a 200 year cyclical return to the mini ice age of the 1500 to 1800s in Britain.

" 1813 was the occasion of the last frost fair on the Thames in London and my thinking is that they'll be back as a regular feature of British life by 2013. Winters are going to be a lot more severe from now on. "

He also thought the duplicitous nature of British politics would see a complete LibDem U-turn on its University education policy. If he gets that right perhaps I'll take him more seriously!

Fact is though that 2009/10 was the coldest UK winter for 30 years. The white Christmas market paid out last year which was the second time in six years and the bookmaker records of the last fifty years show that they only expect to pay out ONCE every six years. So patterns and trends ARE changing and perhaps 'Worzel' has a point.

I was driving in from Kendal on Sunday evening as the six black crows circled over Ghyll Scar. That is local weather forecaster's folklore round here for a heavy dump of snow and sure enough, within an hour, the most humungous pregnant black cloud formed and we got six inches in under an hour. Very unusual for November according to records over the past fifty years and further sign perhaps that 'Worzel' is on the right track.

So what do the Met Office say? Their current 30 day forecast predicts " cold likely to continue. Precipitation amounts average or slightly below. Risk of snow in many areas. West and South of England likely to be less cold. "

My six black crows have taken up residence so the Met Office - whose long range predictions have become noticeably more accurate in the digital age - could well be right. Chances of a snowflake on Christmas Day could be about to move from 1 in 6 to a much lesser ratio.

So how and where to bet? Betfair markets allow regional UK investment with Edinburgh and the Castle Weather station boasting the shortest odds on a 'yes' to a snowflake falling sometime in the 24 hours of December 25th. That's [3.6] for a White Xmas in the Scottish capital although interestingly there is some [4.5] around for the 'yes' in Glasgow, where the cathedral is the umpire's destination. Longshot is London, currently available at [5.7] and perhaps not surprisingly, this is the Betfair market with most liquidity and a current over round of just 102%, making it a robust market to play in. The Met Office however are suggesting that London is the most likely to miss the snow and that is born out also by a look at the historical records of the last 56 years, during which time there has only been a London payout at an incidence of 6%. Contrast that with a 26% payout in Glasgow during the same period (15% in Birmingham and 22% in Belfast) and you see where the value lies.

If you are in the cyclical change camp with 'Worzel', that [5.7] on the queen getting a drop of the unique in her Xmas G & T (Buckingham Palace being where the Met station lies) is a decent price - especially with the Met Office long range giving it some encouragement - but personally I'm playing only partially into that scenario and sticking more with my Northern black crows and the historical percentage incidences of Scotland. A snowflake in the Glenfiddich is much more likely and that [4.5] on Glasgow is my idea of a steal.

THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED WHITE XMAS BET:

1pt on a 'Yes' in the Glasgow regional market at [4.5] or greater

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