The Betfair Contrarian: Why Crystal Bowersox won't win American Idol

Other / The Betfair Contrarian / 15 April 2010 / 4

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Crystal Bowersox is the market leader but the Contrarian expects an upset

"Crystal may be the most accomplished performer by a country mile, but consistently high standards don't get the voters phone fingers twitching as much as someone who noticeably improves each week."

The Contrarian makes a long awaited return to the realm of reality TV as he explains why Crystal Bowersox will not win American Idol.

When it comes to listening, the Contrarian's weakness is not so much for protest music as the sound of people complaining - his collection rarely strays beyond country and punk. This year's American Idol favourite, Crystal Bowersox, is a little bit of both: her acoustic guitar and white dreadlocks put her at the folky fringes of country music, and her thrift store wardrobe and sod off, Cowell attitude give her an abrasive, anti-social edge. She may be a hot favourite - she's currently [2.18] to be the next American Idol - but the Contrarian knows she cannot win. Doubtless she'll still manage to get an album or three out of the pain of rejection, but you're not going to be the champ, Crystal, and here's why.

She's not from the South

In eight previous seasons of American Idol, all of the winners have come from southern states, and such is the overwhelming weight and enthusiasm of the southern voter that seven of the eight have come from the deep south (Texas 2, Alabama 2, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Arkansas). The only exception was Jordin Sparks who comes from Arizona in the south west. Crystal comes from very un-southern Ohio. Three of the remaining eight are from the south: Michael Lynche (Florida), Tim Urban (Texas), and fourth favourite Casey James [8.2].

She's a front runner

Front-running is generally not a successful strategy in reality shows. Viewers like to see someone come through the field and go on a journey. Crystal may be the most accomplished performer by a country mile, but consistently high standards don't get the voters phone fingers twitching as much as someone who noticeably improves each week. For an example you only need to go back to last season, when Adam Lambert, probably the most talented contestant in the entire history of the show, lost in the final.

She's not bland enough

Too much personality is a bad thing on Idol, and while Crystal is modest, determined and far from arrogant, she lacks the plain vanilla flavour that has characterised so many of the previous winners. There have been exceptions, notably Fantasia (big personality, season three), and Taylor Hicks (creepy and prematurely aged, season five), but interestingly, they are the two who have enjoyed least success, which suggests that Cowell and his henchmen may also be doing all they can behind the scenes to steer the voters towards potentially more lucrative winners.

She's her own person

Success tends to come to those performers who show themselves willing to listen and learn from the judges, and be moulded into something showbizzy. The audience responds well to the transition from poorly dressed hayseed to Vegas headliner. That transition doesn't look like happening with Crystal. She doesn't show the requisite humility to the judges and Idol is littered with talent that has failed to budge sufficiently from their own personal brand, such as Lambert last year, or rockers Bo Bice and Chris Daughtry in previous seasons, who did really well, but not well enough to carry a majority.

She doesn't want it badly enough

Voters need to see a few tears, a lot of pleading and a willingness to do whatever it takes to win. Crystal, on the other hand, is yet to blub about how this means everything to her, looks embarrassed at having to participate in the cheesy group numbers and couldn't do a goofy dance in front of a camera if her life depended on it. Lots of people will doubtless respond favourably to her contempt for the showbiz grotesqueries of the competition, but lots of people (including Cowell, probably) will also suspect she is not performing in the spirit of the show and is just using it for her own ends. Such un-American behaviour will not be rewarded with victory.

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Mike | 13 April 2010

Contrarian,

Thanks for motivating me, even more, to vote for Crystal.

As far as your reasons for her not wining are concerned:

'She's not from the South:: Geographically yes, but more importantly she sings like a southerner with her blues/soul/rock style.

'She's a front runner':
You seem to forget about Taylor Hicks, who was a season-long frontrunner....

'She's not bland enough':
Again, like you, I cite Fantasia and Taylor Hicks as reasons FOR her possible success. I would also add that, so far, Crystal is way ahead (performance wise) of the rest of this years final 12

'She's her own person':
Crystal showed up as a 'poorly dressed hayseed' with bad teeth. She is slowly moving in the directions you mentioned.

'She doesn't want it badly enough':
I agree with your observations. However, I believe there are other reasons why Crystal has not warmed to the 'cheeziness' and 'grotesqueries' of the competition'. From what I have read, Crystal has has a pretty tough life. She has been had by people. Those things leave scars. Her success on AI, I believe, will make her more receptive...

Well, anyway, that's my opinion on Crystal's potential for winning.

I am not a youngster. I have lived through the careers of Johnny Cash, Willie Nelson, Joan Baez, Janis Joplin, etc. Crystal is the clear breath of fresh air needed, not only by the record industry, but by us fans. So we will vote, vote, vote for Crystal.

Regards,

Mike
Sally | 13 April 2010

you present an excellent case-I agree with you 100%! Especially approve of the comment about 'her contempt for the showbiz grotesqueries of the competition'....so true. I do however hope that you're wrong. It would be a pleasant change to see her triumph.
medolark | 14 April 2010

I agree with your post Mike very good analysis. I don't want them to change her style, as AI is famous for trying, so even if she dosen't by some odd chance win she will be a success.
She's a fighter. Ü
Derrick | 15 April 2010

Contrarian,

I am totally disagree with you!

Crystal will win!!! Can win!!! Should win!!!

No one deserve the title except Crystal in this season!!!!

Crystal will be a very successful musician. Millions will buy her CDs.

Derrick