ITV's I'm A Celebrity Final takes place on Sunday, and the market predicts success for Vicky Pattison. Our man Alan Dudman however believes that history tells us otherwise...
"Mark Wright traded at 1.384/11 to be crowned the jungle king, and he too was beaten at the final hurdle - by none other than the 'quiet man' Dougie Poynter. Vicky of course could have it all sewn up, but history suggests it could be worth throwing in a low-risk lay." Lay Vicky Pattison in the winner market @ 1.351/3
The Final - ITV Sunday 21:00
The votes are in, and I as the betting.betfair.com I'm A Celebrity returning officer (catchy title huh?), can confirm the three finalists for Sunday's show. And considering viewers can vote up to five times via an app, it's hardly a surprise our trio comprises of two reality stars and a boyband member.
The big three are Vicky Pattison, Ferne McCann, and George Shelley.
My ante-post pick was in a boyband once, but it was so long ago Tony Hadley used to go to the studio on a horse. The 1980s delivered great songs such as 'Party Fears Two', 'High Energy' by Evelyn Thomas and 'Ca Plan Pour Moi' by some bloke from Belgium. The 2010s have given us Ed Sheeran, and for that we should all be sad.
A speedy update; Tony went on Friday (again we missed the bet by one day), swiftly followed by seventh and eighth out in Jorgie Porter and Kieron Dyer on Saturday evening. The campmates gave 'Big Tone' a terrific send-off by singing 'Gold'. A medal that he was nowhere near unfortunately.
Jorgie was laid at 1.804/5 in the top female market, but she'd disappeared from the face of the earth last week, as the producers delivered giant-sized helpings of Ferne and Vicky for the rest of the week. She was doomed once the canny TV stars knew how to play the game.
I miss Dyer, and not in the way I missed him playing for West Ham. He finally got the 'camp leader' position and the #pray4kieron worked on twitter.
His reputation has most definitely been enhanced. There were some touching moments with the former footballer, and he revealed he is keen to manage Ipswich Town one day. It's a pity he didn't mention Newcastle - as the way things are going there - he could be in the frame.
Late on Saturday evening, hot favourite Vicky Pattison was even hotter on the exchange at 1.351/3 and 4/9 on the Sportsbook. Other odds-on shots on the site include an Eastenders novelty bet - in which the Queen Vic is 1/3 to host a wedding reception. How about Andy Murray for SPOTY? Or Christian Eriksen for Danish Footballer Of The Year at 8/15. I'm gutted, as my favourite player Nicolai Boilesen is not even quoted in the betting. The Ajax left-sided defender will be a future star, you heard it here first.
Anne Hathaway incidentally is 11/4 to play the next Mary Poppins on the Sportsbook. I'd rather it be Boilesen, anyone but Hathaway please.
On to Ferne, and the last time a McCann proved to be a hit on prime time ITV, Minder was running with Fresh Fields (one for the oldies), although Dennis Waterman was usurped by the brilliant and much-underrated Gary Webster in Minder II.
The Essex McCann surely must have purchased a 'how to play the jungle' handbook prior to entry. The bikini came out early, the pitiful rap was wrongly given air time - but she knew it worked with Peter Andre's 'Insania'. She struck up a friendship with the favourite, and her contrived romance with George was a cringeworthy piece of TV. Textbook IAC play.
However, she was a whizz in the bushtucker trials - in fact the perfect jungle contestant and yet she is 10/3.
I had some notes on George and his best quotes from the last few days. Apart from the 22-year-old hoping for Union J to stay together in the future (and don't we all harbour those dreams?), I had absolutely nothing of any relevance on him. He's been strong throughout in the market, but he's the outsider of the three to be crowned now.
Betting Strategy For Sunday's Final
With a very illiquid exchange without the favourite market, does anyone want to take VP on?
Consider this and you might. Last year Jake Quickenden was around 2.01/1 for the final, yet he finished runner-up to the Fogmeister. In 2013 the ridiculous Joey Essex was available to back at 1.715/7 before the final, and he was chinned by Kian Egan.
Who could forgot the Charlie Brooks success in 2012? Well Ashley Roberts' backers haven't, as she was done at odds-on too.
And finally the lowest of the low prices. Essex hunk Mark Wright was a sure-fire winner entering Sunday in 2011. He traded at 1.384/11 to be crowned the jungle king, and he too was beaten at the final hurdle - by none other than the 'quiet man' Dougie Poynter.
Vicky of course could have it all sewn up, but history suggests it could be worth throwing in a low-risk lay.
Sunday's Recommended Bet
Lay Vicky Pattison in the winner market @ 1.351/3
For all the latest price movements on I'm a Celeb and all of our entertainment markets, check out Betfair Predicts...