Christmas Number One Betting: Why X-Factor Joe will beat Rage Against The Machine

Festive Betting / The Betfair Contrarian / 16 December 2009 / 1

" class="free_bet_btn" rel="external" onclick="javascript: pageTracker._trackPageview('/G4/inline-freebet');" target="_blank">

"The release of McEllery's CD, combined with the conservatism of the X Factor viewers ( people who still buy CDs from shops) should see baby-faced Joe annihilate the angry Californian nu-metallers."

Could an online fan-orchestrated campaign to get Zach de la Rocha's crew to number one wipe the smile of Simon Cowell's face this Christmas? The Betfair Contrarian thinks not.

X Factor winners have been number one in the UK Charts at Christmas for the last four years: Alexandra Burke (Hallelujah), Leon Jackson (When You Believe), Leona Lewis (A Moment Like This) and Shayne Ward (Thats My Goal).

This year, however, there is a fly in the ointment, as the anti-Factor forces have mobilised to provide an alternative, in Rage Against The Machine's Killing In The Name. Betfair punters seem to concur that this is the year when Simon Cowell will have to somehow get through the holiday without topping the charts (The X Factor 2009 winner is [2.14] on Betfair, Any Other Artist is [1.86]). The Contrarian, in the spirit of the season, says Humbug!

The Rage campaign is too puny

According to the NME, the fan-orchestrated campaign, which urges people to download the 1992 track so it can stop Joe McIlderry from reaching the number one slot, is a lively one. As of December 14 it boasted 725,000 members on its Facebook group, all of them eager to see the smirk wiped from Cowell's smug chops. By December 15, however, Facebook had inexplicably disabled the operation (hand of Cowell?), and compared to the 19 million plus people who watched the X Factor final, the campaign groups numbers are insignificant.

Early sales figures are misleading

On the morning of December 15, the Rage single was reported to be pulling away from Joe McElderry's debut on both iTunes and Amazon, although the race was very tight, with less than a percentage point in it, according to some reports. On Dec 16, however, the McElderry secret weapon - the CD - will be ushered into this theatre of war. The release of this devastating piece of hardware, combined with the general conservatism of the X Factor viewers (a group of people who still buy CDs from shops) should see baby-faced Joe annihilate the angry Californian nu-metallers, just as he did everyone else who tried to outflank him on the show.

People love rubbish at Christmas

The Contrarian is not one to take a dismissive position toward another person's musical preferences, but there's no denying that Christmas is often a time when conventional tastes are suspended to make way for gimmickry and novelty. St Winifred's School Choir (There's No one Quite Like Grandma); Renee and Renato (Save Your Love); Mr Blobby (Mr Blobby) and Bob the Builder (Can We Fix It?) have all sat atop the pile on previous Christmases. History has yet to pronounce on Mr McElderry's ability to endure as a recording artist, but Rage Against the Machine have already disqualified themselves from the one-hit wonder category.

A download is not a Christmas present

The world of electronic communications has transformed the way life is conducted 365 days of the year, not just at Christmas. However, at this time of year the public still prefers to give something tangible and which can be wrapped in shiny paper as a gift. A download only means of registering a purchase of the Rage song is invisible beneath a Christmas tree, a disadvantage which becomes acutely crippling in December.

'.$sign_up['title'].'

'; } } ?>

(1)

Larry | 16 December 2009

You didn't mention that RATM were 70k ahead in sales this morning...