Justin Bieber and the NHS Choir might be shorter on the markets but Neil Monnery thinks Louisa Johnson can still win despite X Factor's tumbling popularity.
"The 17-year-old has been one of the most popular X Factor winners in years and no winner of the ITV talent show has failed to be number one the following week unless faced with a popular and well-marketed charity single."
The 2015 edition of the X Factor was beset by problems. A dwindling audience, a novelty act making it all the way to a final, a presenting duo that fell some distance short of Dermot O'Leary's professionalism and being soundly beaten in the ratings by Strictly Come Dancing. This show's malaise has caused its winner to drift to a very attractive price to be named as Christmas Number One for 2015.
She though is down as the third favourite at the moment behind Justin Bieber and the NHS Choir on the exchange where she is currently trading at 9.617/2. Her price on the Sportsbook has drifted from 11/2 to 13/2 in the past 24 hours.
Speaking yesterday, Colm Rock, Novelties Trader for Betfair said: "Bieber was a 33/1 shot back in November but since a fall from grace for X Factor and with Bieber all over the Global Top 100 chart, Justin is now 4/6 favourite to take the Christmas Number One spot this year.
"The X Factor has been top at Christmas for seven of the past ten years and, as is tradition in the UK, a social media campaign is rallying to prevent it happening again by backing grime MC Stormzy's single 'Shut Up'."
Since then though we've seen a strong move away from MC Stormzy, with the friend of Boxing heavyweight Anthony Joshua available to back at 9/1. The hashtag #ShutUpForXMasNo1 is getting plenty of support but not enough to make the impact it needs in a traditionally big week for singles sales.
So we are down to three in my opinion, Bieber, Louisa Johnson or the NHS Choir. The Canadian teen sensation has been dominating the charts and air waves in recent weeks. You can't change that dial or flick on to a music channel for five minutes without hearing him. That is why his price has dropped dramatically because he just isn't budging. My issue with backing him is his fans are buying so many different singles that the split could allow someone else to sneak through the middle.
The NHS Choir are priced up at 9/2 on the Sportsbook and have all the characteristics of a popular charity single. With doctors, nurses and midwives, they tick the box in terms of likeability factor but despite listening to a lot of radio, they haven't hit my consciousness and I suspect it will be similar for many others. With little more than 2,000 followers on Twitter, I can't see them getting enough exposure to win the big prize.
This leaves us with the X Factor winner and is why Louisa Johnson is where the value lies for the shrewd punter. The 17-year-old has been one of the most popular X Factor winners in years and no winner of the ITV talent show has failed to be number one the following week unless faced with a popular and well-marketed charity single.
She entered into the charts at no.9 after just one day of downloads and her CD is available in shops today. Louisa can sing, has a great look and likeable personality, she has also had weekly Saturday night TV exposure for the best part of two months. At 9.617/2 on the exchange, she really is outstanding value.
Back X Factor 2015 Winner (Louisa Johnson) in the Christmas Number One market at 9.617/2 on the Exchange.