Eurovision Betting: What we can learn from the semi-finals

Dan Bettridge
25 May 2012

The Serbian entry go through rehearsal before Saturday's live final

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Dan Bettridge watched the Eurovision Song Contest semi-finals intensely and has outlined four key factors worth keeping in mind ahead of Saturday's final.

For those looking for someone to back outside of the well worn favourites, Serbia look decent value at 13.5 to win the whole thing for the first time since scooping top spot on their competition debut in 2007.

So after two nights filled with awkward presenting and some truly bonkers performances, the line up for this year's Eurovision Song Contest is finally complete.

Broadcast live from Baku, which looks like the type of place I'd build on Sim City whilst drunk, the semis have given us a sneak peak of what to expect when Saturday comes. So what have we learnt?

Sweden are justifiable favourites
Rapturously received by the Baku crowd, the Swedish entry Euphoria - available to back at just 2.35/4 - was certainly one of the standout performances of the two semi-finals. It's an earworm of a tune that's also well staged and aptly performed by a Kate Bush lookalike who is truly mesmerising on stage. It's not the best song we've heard this week, but it's one of the most memorable, which is half the battle really.

The battle between juries and televoters will be key
The first semi-final saw acts like the Russian Grannies and Jedward waltz through, but it also saw several novelty acts and cheesy Europop numbers fall by the wayside. Whilst the televoters at home love uplifting numbers and novelty performances, it's worth remembering that they only count for half of the vote. So it was perhaps no surprise to see that across the two nights vocal talent won through, particularly in ballads, which traditionally go down well with the juries. That explains why the likes of Albania and Serbia won through despite a lukewarm response from those watching at home. It also casts doubt on the credentials of Russia's Buranov Babushkas who certainly have the feel-good factor, but may struggle to win over juries on the night.

Turkey may be a dark horse
An upbeat ethnic shanty may not be the first thing you think of when it comes to a Eurovision winner. But it was hard to avoid the chants from the crowd packed into the Crystal Hall on Thursday night, nor their eventual elation when Turkey scooped the final spot in Saturday's final. Well performed and amusingly staged it's a fun filled act that put a smile on people's faces. Turkey also have significant voting allies in the competition and whilst they're a long shot to win overall they're perhaps worth a punt on a Top 10 (2.546/4) or even Top Five Finish (6.611/2).

Battle of the Balkans
In all, seven Balkan countries qualified for Saturday's final, which goes to show the continued dominance of the region on the competition. Out of those that have gone through Romania look like a good bet for a Top 10 Finish as do Greece, whose up tempo number was a real crowd pleaser. All of which makes the top Balkan market look like a musical minefield. But perhaps the biggest fish in the peninsula pond are Serbia, who only added to their credentials with Thursday night's well-polished performance. For those looking for someone to back outside of the well worn favourites, they look decent value at 13.5 to win the whole thing for the first time since scooping top spot on their competition debut in 2007.

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