Eurovision 2011: Four key betting factors for finals night...

Eurovision Song Contest / Eliot Pollak / 13 May 2011 / 3

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It's all love with Sjonni's Friends - Eliot's tip for Euro glory

"Iceland have the type of back story that would have Simon Cowell sobbing like a baby on the outside, but creaming himself with excitement within."

...or why you should back Iceland and consider a few savers on Romania, Austria and Finland

Whilst many would assume the average Betting.Betfair reader to be all about the FA Cup Final this weekend, or perhaps the Rome Masters, I know better. Forget the arch, forget Novak's unbeaten run, the only thing you'll all be worrying about on Saturday, will be what to wear for the big Eurovision party.

Well we cant help with that (although less is always more), but here are four factors to consider when having a cheeky punt on the final.

1. The later, the better.
The popular betting mantra around Eurovision is that the later on in the evening the performance, the better the chances of winning. The philosophy behind it is fairly simple - Eurovision viewers are buffoons with memories like cheesegraters, so the later the song, the fresher it is in people's minds when the time comes to vote.

So ingrained is this rule, that not since 2004 have a country performed in the first 15 acts of the show, and won the big prize. Of the closing batch this year, expect dark horses Romania and Austria to perform well (singing at 17 & 18 respectively). Six of the seven countries that follow don't inspire too much hope, (the exception is Iceland, more of whom later,) so if you're going with the late theory, work with those two. Romania are [4.9] to finish in the top 10, whilst Austria are a similar price to finish in the top 5.

2. Alternatively, open the show.
A typical Eurovision experience for those with lives, is to tune in enthusiastically, enjoy the opening burst, get bored during the middle of the second song, and then come back for the voting. So if you only catch one song this year, it will be Finland's. They wont win it - but may be worth an each-way punt for that very reason. Back the Fins at [3.7] to finish in the top 5.

3. Back the British. A bit.
The aesthetic qualities of Blue, as well as a pretty reasonable song should see a respectable performance from the UK for the first time in a while. Jedward on the other hand, are a joke that wore thin months ago. Back the UK at 1.97 in the match-bet with Ireland.

4. never underestimate the power of sentiment.
Our tip - Iceland at [160.0]. Not only do they perform late on in the evening, but they have the type of back story that would have Simon Cowell sobbing like a baby on the outside, but creaming himself with excitement within.
Sigurjón's Friends are a tribute band with a difference. The lead singer Sigurjón Brink died just days before he was due to compete in the Icelandic final of Eurovision. His band-mates, rather than just drop out, decided to cash in, sorry, pay tribute by renaming the group after their friend, and recording the song anyway. They smashed through that final, and here they are now, on the continental stage. Europes love a pathetic sob-story; after all, look at the way they have rushed to help bail out the Greeks.
See you in Reykjavik 2012!!!

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Anonymous | 13 May 2011

I expect Ireland to do rather well actually. They are second favourites and hugely popular in europe even if they are a joke in the uk.
Wonderohthree | 14 May 2011

Jedward currently number 1 in the Norwegian, Finnish and German iTunes charts so be wary of backing against them tonight
Sie | 14 May 2011

''Europes love a pathetic sob-story'', that's a bit harsh considering the guy only died this year. How can you call such a recent death a pathetic sob story? Unless English is your second language.

Ireland will cruise past the UK.. Lay UK in that match bet..