Eurovision Song Contest / Editor / 29 May 2010 / 3

If terrible music and great entertainment's your bag then tonight is your night. Azerbaijan are the big favourites to triumph in Oslo but the Germans and Armenians are hot their tails. And what chance a UK winner? Hmm... Here's our guide to the 2010 Eurovision Final.

1-Azerbaijan: Seems to be the favourite and going first will probably help it (people tend to pay particular attention to the first few and the the last few). According to our research, it ticks lots of boxes too: In Eb minor (a semitone from the winning key of D minor), no key change and it's in English. This ought to do very well -- despite being pretty dreadful.

2 - Spain: The first appearance from one of the Big Four. Sung in Spanish (bad idea), use of an accordion (fast becoming the Eurovision equivalent of suicide), key change (cheap trick). It is in a minor key, but that's pretty much the only thing it has going for it. However he has just won a big online vote for cutest male in Eurovision (beating Israel) so might pick up points in this way. Plus the staging is stolen from a Mika gig so should do well in France, Portugal etc.

3 - Norway: If Norway aren't trying to deliberately sabotage their chances of winning then they've accidentally stumbled on the perfect song to do just that. After turning in an entry that fitted the Eurovision mold perfectly last year (Fairytale in D minor, in English, no key change, folk-influenced instrument high in the mix, Alexander Rybak born in Belarus) this starts off in a major key and then changes key twice to finish in F# Major, a semitone away from the deadly key of G. Terrible idea.

4 - Moldova: It is testament to the quality of the first semi final that this has managed to make it through. Mid nineties eurodance hasn't been popular at Eurovision since, well, the mid nineties. Qualitatively speaking, this is a good contender for last place (certainly bottom three -- particularly if they wheel out that twat with the saxophone). That said, Moldova does have a lot of neighbours so may pick up enough points to be comfortably middle ranked.

5- Cyprus: It's a wishy washy song, but Jon Lilygreen is from Wales and the Eurovision seems to disproportionately admire people who represent countries other than their own. He seems to be well liked -- it will get 12 points from Greece -- but it won't cause any massive upset to the front runners.

6 - Bosnia and Herzegovina: Plain old chugging guitar rock doesn't go over well, unless you're dressed like monsters (cf, Lordi). Echoes of Petr Elfimov last year. Even giving away free ice-creams to everyone at the Eurovision didn't help him. This will be in the bottom half of the table. (At the time of writing the odds are 600/1 -- the outsider by a long chalk)

7 - Belgium: When a song is in such a bad key as A Major, key changes can only be a welcome thing. Sadly the Belgium entrant doesn't put one in. Instead he makes reference to himself in the lyrics which makes him sound like a dick (one of the drawbacks in not singing in your national language).

8 - Serbia: The Heather Mills tribute act is a bit of a wild card. Just bonkers enough without being alienatingly weird, it's jaunty and silly and likely to do well. Serbian is also a successful language to sing in -- having won the competition in 2007. Being 8th means he might just get the last look-in from those with shorter attention spans too.

9 - Belarus: We predicted they'd make it to the final only to flounder at the bottom of the score table. We stick by that.

10 - Ireland: The further east the Eurovision Song Contest spreads over time, the less the famed Irish charm has any effect on the voting masses. They aren't helping matters by putting their song in C Major and then changing up a tone to D Major. They've avoided the traditional Irish fiddly-diddling, but as eastern ethnic folk touches are all the rage that's probably only a good thing. We'll score it highly out of friendship but it'll end up somewhere unremarkable on the table.

11 - Greece: A very, very strong entry from Greece. Fits our Eurovision formula, almost to the letter. The silly shout of "Opa!" will lodge in everyone's head and the thumping folky rhythms will wake everyone up in the slump of the competition's middle. A Top Five finisher, possibly even a Top Three. The odds don't currently seem to reflect that, so maybe worth a punt.

12 - United Kingdom: Closing up the first half we have Josh Dubovie. He's very sweet and we'd love to get behind him a bit more, but it doesn't look good for us. This might have been alright in 1998 but times have moved on. The song is a turkey. We'll probably piece together a couple of small point scores (something big from Ireland too -- probably 12) but not enough to do anything worth bragging about.

13 - Georgia: Too drippy to do any serious business and its position is a killer. This is likely to be forgotten or, worse, remembered for the weird dancers in black tie and tails.

14 - Turkey: Both the Muse soundalikes made it through to the final. This is in D minor, has no key change and suitably ethno-pop string arrangements in amongst the rock guitars and turntables. Seems a little too cool though. Cool never really prospers at Eurovision.

15 - Albania: Making the most of the current love-in that the world is having with electro-pop, this is a very contemporary entry and doesn't seem to have much in the way of competition in that field. Bonkers electric violin solo is good too. This could be a unsuspecting high placer.

16 - Iceland: A nod to bilingualism -probably in an attempt to pick up votes from the French -- this will probably appeal to the 90s Eurovision fans that haven't quite been shaken off. It'll loiter in the middle of the table most likely.

17 - Ukraine: Quite slow to start with (and appears in a slightly unhelpful place in the running order for that sort of thing) but it's in a minor key and sung in English. Then it goes rocky in a kind of Evanesence-y way (about a minute and a half in and all gets a bit preachy too. People will be taken aback by it and then not vote.

18 - France: After France's majestic and jury pleasing entry last year, they seem to have been taken over by World Cup fever and done a kind of African influenced crowd chanter. Not in English and not really catchy in the way that "Opa!" is -- which will probably be snatch its share of the votes.

19 - Romania: The other Muse soundalike. Sung in English, minor key, a lot of effort gone into structure and production. It probably won't win them anything big, but maybe a shout for the Top 10. It's less earnest than Turkey so that might appeal.

20 - Russia: Much like Patricia Kaas's genuinely moving entry last year, which was overlooked by the public but enjoyed by the jury, sadly this is not going to win despite being one of the stronger songs, but it will be saved from complete failure. Unless the spoken word bits cock that up.

21 - Armenia: The token political song, this will be hampered by people taking objection to the lyrical content. However, the song ticks enough boxes for it to do better than most -- particularly the key change which -- whilst usually inadvisable -- drags it from the grey area of B minor into a winning pitch. We really hope that Spinal Tap-style apricot stone/stonehenge prop makes an appearance too.

22 - Germany: Lena is a classic little pop brat -- something we've yet to see in this year's competition. She's fun, upbeat and -- importantly -- in a minor key. Her lyrics are silly and slightly annoying, but people who don't speak English as a first language might find them kind of endearing. She'll probably do best out of the Big Four.

23 - Portugal: Like Jade Ewen last year, this is the musical theatre number. Despite being a superior song musically to "It's My Time", it's still probably a touch too Disney to win. It's also in F# major, changes key to G major and is sung in Portuguese -- all bad moves according to our highly scientific research.

24 - Israel: With echoes of the death-era "Show Must Go On" Freddie Mercury, the stirring music, the cute boy and the unusually well-judged key change mean that this will pack the emotional punch needed to make this the big sweeping ballad of the evening. Top Three finisher.

25 - Denmark: Having so obviously ripped off "Every Breath You Take", putting it in F# Major and furnishing it with a key change that straddles it over G Major and into G# Major, Denmark will be lucky if they scrape together enough points to make double figures. Or so says our research. Europe is still kind of keen on that sort of riff though.

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(3)

1. Norway | 29 May 2010

   I don't agree with any of these editor comments, obviosuly you want people to bet on clangers like Israel lol, which is why I'm putting 10k on Norway to be a Top 4 finisher. Should secure me 60k.

2. Niko | 30 May 2010

   I'm not sure what the reference to Romania / Muse was about. I liked the Romanian song. Not sure if the person above really did like Norwegian song but it was awful and should have never won in January - Bjorn Johan Muri had a much better song which could have possibly won.

   Was suprised about the success of Greece and Denmark. Particularly Greece as it wasn't really a sung, just an old man doing some odd chanting with non-traditional background music.
   

3. keaton | 30 May 2010

   I don't agree with any of these editor comments, obviosuly you want people to bet on clangers like Israel lol, which is why I'm putting 10k on Norway to be a Top 4 finisher. Should secure me 60k.

   Ooops!

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