Eurovision Song Contest / Editor / 29 May 2010 /

Eurovision is great for throwing up surprise winners - and great betting stories - but it always pays to know who the big guns are and why. Here's a rundown of the big five...

Now Europe hasn't seen more than a clip of any of these yet, but there's a couple of contenders among them.

Norway's [85.0] chap may have the charisma of an MFI wardrobe, but his simply staged event ballad will be go massive in the hall, and will probably eat the chances of both Ireland and Israel. A likely top three and an almost certain top five.

Germany [4.8], on the other hand, have been looking dead e, and as enormously likable as the lass may be, her gargled vocals will probably repulse as many punters as she'll attract. Lay her to fail.

Spain's [140.00] a funny one. A sweet, yet funny looking chap with a Leo Sayer frightwig, he's lumbered with some very off-putting circus folk leaping about on stage with him. The big odds for a win still look attractive for a surprise each way, but we fear he'll get lost in the pack.

France [100.00] isn't going to win - especially as those of a more African background tend to fare badly in this contest, and particularly among eastern voters. But his high energy beach aerobics is going to win a lot of fans in the West, and that might scrape him into the top ten. A match bet against someone like Ireland or Romania could prove a lot of fun.

And as for the UK [400.00], our boy's suffering the highest odds of any of our songs ever. But winning a last place bet will give you the same satisfaction as slapping a puppy. So if you don't want to feel dirty, be patriotic and back him not to come last, or better still, lay him against Portugal, Belarus or Moldova. Good luck to you Josh boy!

The contenders

Azerbaijan [3.8] has topped the field for an age, but she's been falling like a stone since her wooden dress rehearsals. You can almost see her thinking about what her next few steps are, and her ungainly totter, added to a killer first-on draw, may have scuppered her chances. Lay her to lose, or match her with Armenia for some political fun.

Armenia [7.8] is the strong market mover. There might be a bit too much happening on stage, but they've disguised her manliness well, and she possesses an easy grace that her Azeri rival just can't match. This is where the smart money's been going since Thursday, but it's still not sure thing.

The formerly well-favoured Israel [12.0] came over dreadfully pitchy on the telly in the semi, and has been drifting seriously in the bettering. however, a good draw and a strong song could just drag him into contention when we get to the last half dozen juries. Another decent each way stab.

Turkey, [12.5] however, have been coming in like a train since people realised they weren't some diddly-di folk act, and their stadium-esque show has been winning over even the campest fan boy. Too rocky to win? Hmm, possibly, but it should be in with a nod down the home straight. A risky win bet, but a goo punt at top five.

Every year there's a song that everyone is scared of winning, and this year it's Denmark [16.0]. It's cheesy, old time and sung by a pair who clearly don't get on. But don't forget that this contest is watched by mum's, grans and under eights the continent over who may not be immune to its charms. But do the right thing and back it not to win - ot at the very least, lose a match against Turkey.

The rest

You certainly can't discount the Greek turbo disco, although it's perhaps a smudge too formula to go all the way, and Belgium's simple jangler has been hugely popular in the hall, despite having the appear of your simple cousin. Romania are probably in for a second division finish, but its showy Sarah Brightman-in-a-flamebath schtick might lure in some votes, while Cyprus is getting up a head of steam, but is perhaps a tad too pedestrian to go all the way. But if you want an unlikely top five bet, have a think about Portugal. Yes, I know, but there's always an innocent, sweet-faced lass who confounds expectations and nearly nips it, and this might be she.

I would normally say that the rest of the field are most probably well out of it, but this year, well, who can say! We could well have another Olsen Brothers where we'll all be sitting here at about midnight going "How the hell did that just happen?!!" But whatever does transpire, it's looking to be one of the most exciting voting sequences in years. Do enjoy!

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