Dancing On Ice Betting: Chemmy going downhill fast

Dancing On Ice / Simon Hopper / 09 March 2012 /

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Off you go, Chemmy

"Based on average scores Chemmy Alcott’s over 3.5 points worse than anyone else and if she is in the skate-off again then it will almost certainly be Goodnight Nurse. "

The unpopular Chemmy Alcott is a must bet for elimination this week, says Simon Hopper in his regular Dancing On Ice preview

We were spot on tipping Andy Whyment to go last weekend and now it's hard to see the unpopular Chemmy Alcott surviving beyond this Sunday.

The professional skier has been in three of the last four skate-offs but managed to survive them all so far, largely thanks to the poor quality of opposition she has faced. But she's quite obviously the worst skater remaining. Jorgie Porter and Matthew Wolfenden are on a different planet, Jennifer Ellison is improving all the time while Chico is a regular in the top three judges' scores every week. Based on average scores she's over 3.5 points worse than anyone else and if she is in the skate-off again then it will almost certainly be Goodnight Nurse.

Chemmy's other problem is that she just can't connect with the public. She's not the most flamboyant personality, she doesn't seem to have a great chemistry with her partner Sean Rice and she's not as easy-going as the other celebrities - all of these points don't normally endear a Dancing On Ice contestant to the voters.

You won't get rich backing Chemmy to go this weekend but I just can't see any other outcome. I expect her to trade at around the [1.8] mark once the market gains liquidity and that should be taken.

If you believe the market then Chico (around [3.0]) is Chemmy's biggest elimination rival this week. While he is the only other surviving skater to have been in a skate-off, he is usually a regular at the top of the leaderboard (excusing last week when his tacky routine to "Sexy and I Know It" cost him a point or two, I'm convinced of it). I think he'd beat Chemmy in a skate-off and I also think he'd have a good shot against Jennifer Ellison ([8.0]), who looks better value to go if backing bigger prices is your thing.

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