Big Brother 11 / Dan Fitch / 03 September 2009 /

It's the Big Brother final on Friday and it looks like a two horse race, with surgically enhanced Sophie out in front. Dan 'The Betting Man' Fitch looks at the runners and riders.

Perhaps it's fitting that in the year that it's been announced that Channel 4 are to sever their ties with Big Brother, we have one of the least interesting final line ups in the show's history.

Not that this series has been a failure. It's actually had some really great characters, but unfortunately none of them have made it to the final. Throw in Freddie and/or Marcus and we'd have something to really look forward to.

The clear favourite is now Sophie at [1.33]. Once Kris and Karly were evicted, she was always in with a chance. When she then decided that she wouldn't be giving Kris the opportunity to whisper sweet banter to her, she was in with a great chance.

I still wonder if her price isn't just a little too small. None of the glamour models types that have been on the show in the past have won, but then none of them are as likeable as Sophie and have had the good grace to put on some weight while in the house, to make them look more normal.

Siavash is at [6.8]. He was my pick within the first couple of weeks, but really he's stagnated since the Noirin affair and the evictions of his friends Freddie and Marcus. He's still well liked and I think he has a chance, but he did himself no favours with his decision to not nominate, as people doubted his intentions.

The third favourite is Rodrigo at [14.5] who would have been a contender, if not for his temper and the goody-two shoes act. Instead I think the best he can achieve is second place. Rodrigo is [3.75] in the winner without Sophie market.

Then comes Charlie at [30.0]. It's interesting that the housemates still think that he will win and you suspect that Charlie secretly shares their view. Unfortunately the public have not been remotely amused by his 'jokes' and he's been shown up to be petty and mean on a number of occasions. His recent sulking at not being able to dance in the Beyonce task, summed up his attention seeking attitude.

Last and certainly least, is David. Having had the advantage of watching the show for several weeks before entering the house, David came up with the genius strategy of becoming best friends with the most hated housemate. Since then he's done nothing really but drink tea, smoke fags and hang on Lisa's every word, even though most of those words were 'f*****g'.

David is [70.0] to win the show and the [1.43] favourite to finish fifth. Betfair has markets on which housemate with finish fifth, fourth, third and runner up, as well as on who will reach the top four, top three and top two. You might find more value within these markets than in the winner market.

Personally I'm not bothered who wins out of Sophie and Siavash, although I would win more money if Siavash is victorious. In truth I should have won far more on either of these outcomes than I will, because I decided to back Freddie at very low prices. Lesson 1 of Big Brother betting: Don't just lump all your money on the housemate you find the most entertaining, because the clueless general public will always vote them out.

This has always been the flaw with the show and the producers don't help by favouring the bland housemates, over those that actually do something in the house. Witness how they've humiliated Siavash at every opportunity of late.

There have been rumours that Channel 4's last series will be an All Stars show, featuring old housemates. This is a great idea, but only if they eschew the show's winners, who are normally quite boring and just pick the cream of the crop from each year. Slick V-I-C, your country needs you.

From this series, only Marcus and Freddie, or possibly Bea and Noirin (if they were short of a villain) would make the cut. If they pick the right people then the public and the press will be interested and the show will go out with a bang.

From a betting point of view, it would be a pity if BB ended. The current favourite has been backed as high as [48.0] during the series and the second favourite as high as [50.0]. You don't get those sort of odds on the winner of the Premier League.

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