Six Nations Betting: Wales good value to land Ireland win

Simon Mail
07 February 2014

Sam Warburton returns to captain Wales this weekend

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Simon Mail previews the second round of the Six Nations where he thinks holders Wales can clinch a win in Ireland...

"The away record of Wales is mightily impressive with five successive victories in the Six Nations and seven wins in their last eight matches."

Ireland v Wales
Saturday, February 8, 14:30
Live on BBC One

Two of the three sides that won their Six Nations opener clash in Dublin in the game of the weekend. Ireland looked particularly impressive during the second half of their victory over Scotland. Joe Schmidt's team improved significantly as the match progressed and ran out comfortable 28-6 winners. Back-to-back home games has handed them the chance to build real momentum and the Irish are also boosted by the return of influential lock Paul O'Connell.

Wales are targeting a record third consecutive title but Warren Gatland's side got off to a lacklustre start. The Welsh struggled to find any fluency as they stuttered to an unconvincing 23-15 win over Italy. However it would be wise not to read too much into this because Wales normally improve as the competition progresses and should be much better than last week's effort. Sam Warburton is recalled to captain the side following his return from a shoulder injury, in place of Justin Tipuric.

This has all the makings of a tight tussle and Ireland, with home advantage, are deemed slight favourites. Wales were beaten by the Irish last season but have won three of the last four meetings, and Wales' away record is mightily impressive with five successive victories in the Six Nations and seven wins in their last eight matches. This demonstrates their mental strength and ability to win close contests so the visitors are the value bet considering their recent track record.

Recommended Bet
Back Wales to win at 2.3211/8

Scotland v England
Saturday, February 8, 17:00
Live on BBC One

Scotland were well beaten in Ireland last weekend despite a promising first half. The Scots were again punished for a lack of ruthlessness, as they failed to turn their possession and territory into tries. Interim coach Scott Johnson faces a difficult task rallying his side and he could have done without the knee injury to Sean Maitland which has ruled the winger out of the rest of the tournament. He has made a bold call by dropping captain Kelly Brown from the squad and handing a first cap to flanker Chris Fusaro.

England will still be wondering how they managed to lose their opener in France. Stuart Lancaster's side produced a very encouraging performance as they fought back from 16-3 down but a late Gael Fickou try sent them to defeat. England will know that they cannot afford to start as slowly as they did in Paris but the way they controlled so much of the match will give them optimism for the rest of the campaign. The fact they have selected an unchanged side suggests there was not too much wrong with their first display.

The visitors are strong favourites to come away from Murrayfield with the win and it is not hard to see why on the basis of the opening round. Both sides lost but England's performance was a lot more positive than the Scots' effort. With five wins and a draw in the last six clashes, England have certainly had the upper hand. If conditions are bad it could be a war of attrition and I would not expect England to run away from their opponents. Backing a tight win for the away side looks the best bet here.

France v Italy
Sunday, February 9, 15:00
Live on BBC One

France were fortunate to come away with a victory from their first match at home to England. The French made a fast start as they scored two early tries but were second best for most of the remainder of the match. There are still question marks against Philippe Saint-Andre's side especially in the half-back positions where they have opted for the inexperienced Jules Plisson and Jean-Marc Doussain.

Italy may have lost their opening match but there was plenty for them to take away from their narrow loss to champions Wales. The Italians are renowned for the doggedness of their forwards but their attacking play troubled the Welsh as centre Michele Campagnaro ran in two tries. Jacques Brunel's side won't fear going to France and will relish playing their usual role as underdogs.

The hosts are overwhelming favourites for this match and although they will probably win, it is worth taking them on in the handicap market. France have dominated this fixture over the years but the gap has closed recently with Italy winning two of the last three meetings, including a memorable success last season. Both of these came in Rome but there is reason to believe the visitors can keep the score down in France and backing them in the Sportsbook with a 17-point advantage looks well worth snapping up.

Follow Simon's bets on Twitter @watfordtipster