Six Nations Betting: Wales can shatter England's Grand Slam hopes

Simon Mail
14 March 2013

Stuart Lancaster is hoping to guide England to their first Grand Slam for ten years

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Simon Mail previews the final day of the Six Nations and thinks Wales can defeat England in their title decider...

"Wales have won the last two encounters against England and do appear to have momentum in their favour."

The final round of fixtures sees a Grand Slam and title decider between Wales and England. Winless France host Scotland and the other match sees Italy take on Ireland.

Wales v England

The clash between Wales and England is set up beautifully for the finale with both the title and the Grand Slam on the line. Stuart Lancaster's side are in pole position to win the Six Nations after victories in all four games but will be targeting a first Grand Slam for a decade. England started the competition impressively against Scotland but have got progressively worse from an attacking perspective as it has gone on. An unconvincing narrow win over Italy did not inspire confidence but you would expect a much improved showing in Cardiff.

Wales have transformed their campaign despite a ragged start. An eighth consecutive defeat in their opener against Ireland put them under immense pressure but they have responded with three successive away wins. The defending champions appear to have rediscovered their confidence and with the home fans behind them will be desperate to keep hold of the title.

The hosts know they need to win by at least seven points to win the championship and this looks likely to be a very close affair. Wales have won the last two encounters and do appear to have momentum in their favour. Playing at the Millennium Stadium has to be an advantage for Wales and at the prices, they look to be worth backing even if they don't do enough to win the title.

Recommended bet: Back Wales to win at 2.3211/8

Italy v Ireland

It has been a mixed bag for Italy this year after starting with such promise. Jacques Brunel's side were brilliant in their home win over France but failed to match this standard in their subsequent defeats to Scotland and Wales. However the Italians came away from Twickenham last weekend with a huge amount of credit after being unfortunate to lose 18-11.

Ireland will not be happy with their campaign after starting with an impressive win in Wales. Declan Kidney's team have failed to win since then although they should have beaten both Scotland and France. Injuries to key players such as Jonny Sexton have certainly not helped their cause but there does not seem to be much direction about the way the 2009 Grand Slam champions are trying to progress.

Italy have been dominated by their opponents with the last 17 matches all won by Ireland. But the Italians have targeted two wins from this Six Nations and after their performance against England will believe this is their chance. A stronger Ireland team than the current one were on the brink of defeat before snatching a 13-11 win in Rome two years ago. Italy have improved since then so back them to edge it in the handicap market.

Recommended Bet: Back Italy +3.5 points at 2.265/4

France v Scotland

It has been a dire Six Nations for the French who are staring at the prospect of the wooden spoon. France have yet to win and were heading for a fourth defeat until they snatched a late draw in Ireland. Philippe Saint-Andre's side were expected to provide the main opposition to England in the title race but it has turned into a horror show from them.

Scotland, on the other hand, have enjoyed a much more productive tournament including posting back-to-back wins in the Six Nations for the first time since 2001. Interim coach Scott Johnson has managed to lift the team and their attacking game shone in the first two matches. The side have not been nearly as effective in the last two games but it has still been a promising six weeks from them.

France will be under enormous pressure to try and salvage some pride from a disastrous competition. Although they have looked a poor side there is no question they're capable of turning on the style at any moment. Scotland have only won one of the last 14 matches against them so the French should prevail but won't find it easy and a tight victory could be on the cards.

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