Six Nations Betting: Ireland v France

Cormac O'Keeffe
07 March 2013

Declan Kidney: Will this be his last home game as Ireland coach?

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Ireland host France in Dublin in a game that will have no bearing on the destiny of the championship but could all but end the international career of the losing coach...

"Last year's draw in Paris brought to an end a run of 11 Irish losses in the last 12 matches between the sides and it's difficult to make a compelling case for an Irish victory this weekend."

Back France by under 12.5 points @ 2.77/4

Ireland v France
Saturday 17:00, Live on BBC1

Form

Last year the Ryder Cup gave us the "miracle at Medinah" and this year we have the equivalent "miracle at Murrayfield", where a team somehow won a match against all the odds. In one respect it would take a room full of Mensa members to work out how Scotland won the match but in another it is relatively simple to see how Ireland lost. If you have an out-half who can't kick at goal with any degree of accuracy and a hooker who throws into a lineout with similar profligacy then it's difficult to win any high-level match. Throw in some very questionable decision-making and some basic handling errors and you have the recipe for a remarkable capitulation, the likes of which most of us cannot recall or countenance seeing again.

France were much more competitive against England than they were in their first two games and were in with a chance of winning the game up until the last 10 minutes. This was largely attributable to improved selection. However, the decision to replace Trinh-Duc with Michalak was almost as baffling as the mystery of how a team can lose a game of rugby with close to 80% possession and territory. If they lose to Ireland they will face the prospect of their first winless championship for over 50 years.

Head-to-Head

It seems that Ireland's record against France has improved greatly over the last decade or so. While that is true, it is only the case in a relative sense. Our record still remains pretty abysmal, with only one win in the last nine championship meetings. Even in Dublin Ireland have lost four of the last five encounters in the championship and the overall record is much worse when World Cup and test matches are included. Last year's draw in Paris brought to an end a run of 11 Irish losses in the last 12 matches between the sides and it's difficult to make a compelling case for an Irish victory this weekend.

Team News

Ireland will make at least three changes to the side that lost to Scotland a fortnight ago. Mike McCarthy has recovered from a knee injury and replaces Donncha O' Callaghan in the second row alongside Donnacha Ryan who has recovered from a shoulder injury. Craig Gilroy's recovery has not been so speedy and he is replaced by Fergus McFadden on the right wing.

For some inexplicable reason Cian Healy's ban has been slashed and he returns to the front row alongside Best and Ross, who pack down against a strong French front row. Jonathan Sexton will not be risked and in what may signal the end of a remarkable international career, Ronan O' Gara has been omitted from the squad. He may return as cover for Ian Keatley if Paddy Jackson fails to prove his fitness but this seems unlikely at this stage.

Saint-Andre has made three changes to the side that lost to England. All three changes come in the backline, where Florian Fritz, Maxime Medard and Frederic Michalak replace Benjamin Fall, Mathieu Bastareaud and Francois Trinh-Duc respectively.

The decision to start the hapless Michalak ahead of Trinh-Duc is difficult to fathom. However, unlike earlier games, the inclusion of Parra will take the heat of Michalak's poor goal-kicking. The Irish midfield will be happy not to be facing Mathieu Bastareaud but the challenge of stopping Wesley Fofana remains an immense one.

Verdict

Overall, I feel that the French side is getting stronger by the week as Saint-André gradually sees sense, while the Irish injury list grows at similar rate to the Irish national debt. Ireland's record against France is woeful and it would take an optimist to think that the farcical management of the O' Gara situation and continued questions about the captaincy will in any way galvanise the Irish side.

France are justifiable favourites in my opinion (available to back at 1.8910/11) and I think the standout bet is for a French victory by under 12.5 points. Their pack is one of the better ones in the competition and their front row should dominate their Irish counterparts. Even if Rory Best has one of his better days, France will still more than likely win the lineout battle too.

Recommended Bets

Back France by under 12.5 points @ 2.77/4