Rugby Championship Betting: South Africa v New Zealand
With a world record on the horizon, New Zealand should be fully motivated to beat South Arica and rate a good bet to win on Saturday says Geoffrey Riddle...
"Yet when New Zealand themselves are in this position they never lose and it is only the doubt that they really do care that prevents me from having a really solid wager on Steve Hansen’s visitors."
*Bryan Habana's hat-trick last weekend takes his scoring tally up to six this season. He is short of only Joe Rokocoko and Christian Cullen in the all-time scoring lists in the Tri-Nations/Rugby Championship.
* The FNB stadium has a capacity of 95,000
* If New Zealand win, Richie McCaw will become the first player to play in 100 victories - it will be his 112th cap.
* South Africa have made four changes to the side that lost 21-11 to the All Blacks in Dunedin. They are: Johan Goosen, Jaco Taute, Eben Etzebeth, Andries Bekker.
* New Zealand have made four changes from that day also. They are: Brodie Retallick, Aaron Smith, Dan Carter and Hosea Gear.
South Africa showed what they were capable of last week in their win against Australia but they will have to be at their very best if they are to deny New Zealand in Soweto on Saturday.
As predicted at the start of the Rugby Championship, New Zealand have added to their success at the World Cup with a victory in the inaugural tournament.
South Africa had the benefit of a newly-anointed All Blacks side come to Rustenburg in 2006 when the Springboks caught their visitors unawares.
It will not happen this time in front of a huge crowd in what was formerly known as "Soccer City."
New Zealand arrived in South Africa this week determined to show off that they were champions of the world. In press conferences all week they have suggested that they are going to front up this time, that they had learned the lessons of six years ago and it looks as if they mean business.
There is also the small matter of the world record on the line. South Africa hold the record among top-tier nations of 17 consecutive wins, which is one victory fewer than Lithuania's world record.
New Zealand have not lost since they were downed by Australia 25-20 in the Tri-Nations last year, which is a streak of 15 matches. They face Australia for a one-off Bledisloe Cup match in Brisbane on October 20 and then the whole jamboree packs off to Europe where they could register their top-tier record at Murrayfield.
Of course this all gives South Africa added incentive, which means we are in for a proper Test match.
With that in mind New Zealand look overpriced in the win market, as by my calculations they should be approaching something like a [1.33] shot. On Betfair you can get [1.56].
When teams as good as New Zealand meet teams as good as South Africa the average supremacy over the past 12 years is around six points. On Betfair the main handicap line reflects this with South Africa enjoying a start of 5.5 points.
Yet when New Zealand themselves are in this position they never lose and it is only the doubt that they really do care that prevents me from having a really solid wager on Steve Hansen's visitors.
Recommended investment (1-5 pts staking plan)