International Rugby Stat Attack: South Africa to outclass England again

Bismarck Du Plessis terrorised England last week

Geoffrey Riddle presents the stats ahead of what he expects will be another weekend of misery for fans of northern hemisphere rugby union...

The All Blacks looks good value to win by more than 12.5 points

Recommended Bets
1pt South Africa -9.5

1pt Australia by 1-12.5 points

2pts New Zealand to win by more than 12.5 points

South Africa v England

England were demolished physically by South Africa last week in Johannesburg and the Springboks are looking to hammer the final nail in the coffin of Stuart Lancaster's side in Port Elizabeth this Saturday.

In a stunning opening 18-minute stanza, South Africa raced to a 22-3 lead. I must confess, I was counting my money at that point, as I had tipped and backed the home side to win by more than 9.5 points.

I was not counting, however, on new coach Heyneke Meyer on making so many second-half substitutions to key players. Taking the Du Plessis brothers off before the final quarter was a poor tactical decision, with regards to the match, which allowed England's sturdy fightback to transform into something far more dangerous.

England scored 27 points against South Africa last week, but 17 of those were made after Meyer had made his first substitution. Of course Meyer was probably thinking that he would save his players for this weekend - he has made only three changes - and despite England's determined stance in the Rainbow Nation the home side simply look a different class.

Recommended Bet
1pt South Africa -9.5

Australia v Wales

Backing Australia to win by 1-12.5 points has proved successful in the past two matches between Wales and Wallabies and there is no reason to desert that strategy when the teams meet in Sydney on Saturday.

Of course, Wales have extra motivation. Although they inched above England in the IRB rankings due last weekend's last-gasp and narrow loss, they must still out-perform Stuart Lancaster's side in order to be seeded in the top four for the 2015 World Cup.

Australia are an extremely beatable side, as Scotland displayed earlier this summer but Wales continue to find a way to lose against the southern hemisphere sides.

Recommended Bet
1pt Australia by 1-12.5 points

New Zealand v Ireland

Ireland will be hoping that without Dan Carter they can finally eclipse the All Blacks when the two teams clash in Hamilton on Saturday.

Carter's winning drop-goal last weekend ensured New Zealand extended their unbeaten record to nine matches but the great fly-half misses out due to injury and is replaced by Aaron Cruden.

New Zealand have been rocked further by the concussion to Keiran Read and captain Richie McCaw moves to No 8 to replace him. It is a far from ideal situation for coach Steve Hansen, as Read drags in defenders with his hulking runs and is a keystone in the All Black's defensive wall.

As for Carter, New Zealand's win ratio drops from 88 per cent to 81 per cent when he is absent, which is not enough to explain why the handicap has slid from as high as 23-points during this three Test series to just 16.5 on Betfair.

Yes, Carter and Read are a big blow, and yes Ireland were heroic last week but in the past 20 Tests on New Zealand soil only three resulted in a margin of victory by less than 10 points. The All Blacks looks good value to win by more than 12.5 points in the winning margin market.

Recommended Bet
2pts New Zealand to win by more than 12.5 points

Get a Free £/€20 Exchange Bet

  • Join Now - Open account using promo code VAL225
  • Bet - Place a £/€20 Bet on the Exchange
  • Earn We'll Refund You £/€20 If the Bet Loses

T&Cs apply.

Discover the latest articles