International Rugby Cheat Sheet: Best bets for Australia v England and New Zealand v Ireland

Simon Mail
14 July 2022
4:00 min read

England levelled the series after victory over Australia in Brisbane

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England face Australia in their series decider while Ireland and Wales bid for more upsets in New Zealand and South Africa with Simon Mail previewing a huge day of action...

"England have momentum after last weekend's win and have won nine of the last ten clashes against Australia."

Australia v England
Saturday, 10:55
Live on Sky Sports Action

England respond to level series

England set up a series decider with Australia after their second Test victory and this will go right down to the wire in Sydney. Eddie Jones got the response he was looking for in Brisbane as England dominated the first half. Billy Vunipola's early try set them on their way and Owen Farrell kicked six penalties to secure a much-needed 25-17 win.

The Wallabies were again caught cold as the hosts made a sluggish start. Dave Rennie will know Australia cannot afford to begin slowly at the Sydney Cricket Ground in this weekend's third Test. England will look to punish any mistakes from Australia and profit from penalties.

Ollie Chessum makes his first start for England with the Leicester forward replacing the injured Maro Itoje. Scrum-half Danny Care returns to the team with Jack van Poortvliet on the bench, while Lewis Ludlam starts after flanker Sam Underhill was ruled out with concussion. The Wallabies are set to give a debut to wing Suliasi Vunivalu from off the bench with the former rugby league star a potential threat to England.

The betting suggests there is little to separate the teams with Australia marginal favourites at 1.834/5.

But England have momentum after last weekend's win and have won nine of the last ten clashes against Australia.

It would be no surprise if this match is settled by the smallest margin but preference is to side with England in the first-half market. Australia have been slow out of the traps in both Tests and England are worth backing with a one-point handicap in the opening 40 minutes of this tense decider.

New Zealand v Ireland
Saturday, 08:05
Live on Sky Sports Action

Ireland land historic win

Ireland pulled off a historic first victory over the All Blacks in New Zealand to set up a huge decider in Wellington. Andy Farrell masterminded a famous win for Ireland with their stunning 23-12 triumph highlighting their progress over the last year.

Two tries from the unlikely source of prop Andrew Porter led Ireland to victory in Dunedin with the All Blacks' lack of discipline, after having Angus Ta'avao sent off, proving costly. Bundee Aki is the only change for Ireland with the centre replacing the injured Garry Ringrose.

Ireland's victory last weekend was a shock but perhaps it should not have been because their recent record against the All Blacks is mightily impressive. In the last seven meetings between the teams, Ireland have won four matches. A strong reaction can be expected from the wounded hosts but Ireland merit support with a nine-point handicap advantage.

South Africa v Wales
Saturday, 16:05
Live on Sky Sports Action

Wales stun Sprinboks

Wales also have the chance to pull off a remarkable series win over South Africa after stunning the world champions in Bloemfontein. After late agony in the first Test, Wayne Pivac's team hit back superbly and snatched a 13-12 victory after Gareth Anscombe's conversion from Josh Adams' try. It was Wales' first win over the Springboks in South Africa.

The Springboks will be expected to hit back after their rare defeat on home soil. Siya Kolisi returns to captain South Africa, as one of ten changes from last weekend. Wales fly-half Dan Biggar is fit to start this decider, with Adams starting in place of injured wing Alex Cuthbert.

The first two Tests have been decided by the finest of margins and the Cape Town finale could follow a similar outcome.

South Africa pipped Wales 32-29 in the opener before the visitors edged home by a point last weekend.

It would be a remarkable feat for Wales to clinch back-to-back wins in South Africa and the feeling is they will fall just short. The Springboks' strength in depth could be telling and the powerful hosts are backed to secure the series with a win by no more than 12 points at 11/5.

Argentina v Scotland
Saturday, 20:10
Live on Sky Sports Action

Scotland force series decider

Scotland will bid to complete a series victory in Argentina after Gregor Townsend's side's commanding win in the second Test. Hamish Watson scored one of their four tries, in Scotland's 29-6 win in Salta, to give them all the momentum heading into this weekend.

The Pumas had no answer to Scotland last week and it could be difficult for them to regain the upper hand. Scotland hand Glasgow full-back Ollie Smith his debut as one of eight changes for the match in Santiago Del Estero. Ali Price returns at scrum-half and Watson takes the captaincy for the first time.

The betting suggests the teams are hard to split but the value appears to lie with Scotland at 2.0621/20. Their dominant win sends them into this decider in fine fettle and leaves questions for new Pumas coach Michael Cheika to ponder. Scotland have won six of their last seven matches against Argentina and are worth backing to end the summer tour with another success.

Follow Simon's bets on Twitter @watfordtipster