6 Nations Betting: England can edge past dangerous Scotland

Simon Mail
10 March 2017

England made hard work of beating Italy in their last match

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Simon Mail previews the Six Nations clash at Twickenham and thinks England can keep their Grand Slam hopes alive with a tight win over Scotland...

"The hosts are clear favourites but there is every reason to expect Scotland to push England close this weekend. The last two meetings have been decided by no more than 12 points and England have won two of their three matches in the competition by single figure margins."

England v Scotland
Saturday, 16:00
Live on ITV

England remain on course to retain the Six Nations title but the team have been unconvincing at times despite winning their opening three matches. Eddie Jones' side had to come from behind to edge past France in their opener and were minutes away from losing to Wales in Cardiff before a late try from Elliot Daly snatched the win away from them.

There was little encouragement on offer during the first half at Twickenham in the last round with England trailing Italy 10-5 at half-time. Jones was critical of the visitors' tactic, of not competing at the breakdown, but this only masked a poor display from the hosts. England's quality told in the second half as they ran out 36-15 winners but a significant improvement will be required in their remaining two matches.

Despite their stuttering performances lately, England have still found a way to claim victory with the side on a 17-match winning run. Jones has yet to lose since taking charge and the Australian has instilled a relentless belief and confidence within the side. England are only two victories away from breaking New Zealand's record 18-match run of consecutive Test wins. But the side still have it all to do with a trip to Ireland following this clash.

Billy Vunipola is back on the bench for England after making his return from a knee injury last weekend for Saracens. It means England's pack remains unchanged from the one which started against Italy. Jones has made three changes to their backline with scrum-half Ben Youngs, centre Jonathan Joseph and wing Jack Nowell all recalled to the team.

Scotland will travel to Twickenham with hopes of a rare victory over their rivals after a very impressive tournament to date. Vern Cotter's side opened the competition by shocking Ireland at Murrayfield before a narrow defeat in France. But Scotland responded in the next game as they pulled off a 29-13 home win over Wales.

Cotter has opted to make just one change to the side with Edinburgh flanker Hamish Watson replacing the injured John Hardie. It is no real surprise Scotland have gone with the same backline as the team have already scored seven tries in three matches this year. This is more than they managed in the entirety of three of their last four Six Nations campaigns.

England have dominated this fixture in recent years with seven successive victories and only one defeat in the last 11 meetings. Scotland have struggled at Twickenham where they have not won since 1983 in a 16-match run where they have claimed just a solitary draw. The visitors have not travelled with as much confidence for some time but history has not been kind to them in this contest.

The hosts are clear favourites but there is every reason to expect Scotland to push England close this weekend. The last two meetings have been decided by no more than 12 points and England have won two of their three matches in the competition by single figure margins. Scotland have been extremely competitive under Cotter with ten points their biggest defeat in the last 15 games. A narrow home win looks the most likely outcome but the visitors should also be backed with an 11-point handicap advantage.

Recommended Bets

Back England to win by 1-12 points @ 17/10 (Sportsbook)
Back Scotland +11.5 to win at 2.0621/20

Follow Simon's bets on Twitter @watfordtipster