Super League Grand Final Betting: Saints may have no stars but have proved they're the best

Ralph Ellis
08 October 2014

Tommy Makinson - strangely the only Saints player in the Dream Team

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Betfair's markets forecast a walkover for champions Wigan in Saturday's Super League Grand Final. Ralph Ellis sees reasons to go against the flow...

"Nathan Brown’s team led the table for all but five weeks of a long season. They have backed that up with two emphatic play-off victories. And yet opponents Wigan are as short as 1.491/2 to win Saturday night’s Grand Final and retain their title."

There's a simple rule of league tables - the best team finishes top. Over a long season, the club who on some days plays the best, but on others simply finds the way to scrap a result, and who do it most often, walk away with the trophy.

That works in football, in rugby, in cricket, in pool down the pub, in tiddlywinks, whatever. You can win a knockout competition with a bit of luck, to finish number one in a table you have to be the best.

Yet strangely, according to Betfair's markets, that doesn't seem to be the case in Super League as St Helens head towards Old Trafford this weekend.

Nathan Brown's team led the table for all but five weeks of a long season. They have backed that up with two emphatic play-off victories. And yet opponents Wigan are as short as 1.491/2 to win Saturday night's Grand Final and retain their title. Saints are even odds against at up to 2.486/4 in the early market to win with an extra 6.5 points. If anything screams value, surely it is that?

Now I know I backed St Helens to blow the League Leaders Shield in the last week of the season, and was nearly proved right when they lost their final fixture at Huddersfield Giants, only to be rescued by Catalan Dragons beating Castleford. But that was a different situation, that was because they were struggling to deal with the pressure of getting over the line.

Old Trafford is not the same because the pressure is all on Wigan. Saints go there as the underdogs, and the side whose players are not even considered to be the best. They finished top of the table yet only dashing young winger Tommy Makinson was picked in the Super League's Dream Team. And England coach Steve McNamara has not included a single player from Langtree Park in his party of 24 to tour Australia in the Four Nations tournament.

That says one of two things. Either McNamara is choosing his squad with blind prejudice against the Saints, which is unlikely whatever some fans might tell you. Or while Wigan, who have seven in the England party, can boast the best individuals St Helens will be going to Old Trafford with the strongest team ethic.

There's another factor which will help them produce their best - and that is coach Brown's curious decision to announce before the final that he is leaving this summer to head back home. At a stroke the 41-year-old Aussie, with a year left on his contract, took away any speculation about his future in the build-up to the Grand Final.

There's now no pressure on the head coach, and so not much on the players either. What they have got is a mostly young side, only a few of whom have bitter memories of the last trip to Old Trafford in 2011. They will approach this game as an opportunity, a chance to be positive, a chance to get glory rather than a chance to blow another big occasion.

The Super League table says St Helens are the best team, and Wigan the second best. Tables don't lie - at the very least it is a 50-50 call so the chance to back Saints at big odds against is just too good to miss.