Super League Betting: Home advantage the key to success in Round Six

Raj Bains
17 March 2016

Leeds Rhinos captain Danny McGuire will be hoping to inspire his side to victory after returning from injury

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With the top two meeting in a headline clash and another instalment of the classic cross-Pennines rivalry between Leeds and St Helens due to be played out, it looks like we're in for another exciting weekend of Super League action. As ever, Raj Bains is on hand to guide us through.

"Should the Rhinos click back in to gear, they’ve more than enough to steamroller this Saints side at home, especially in front of what’s looking to be a near capacity Headingley crowd. Leeds have a deeper bench, with players fresh and looking to prove themselves after a poor start - that should be more than enough to see them through this one fairly convincingly."

Leeds Rhinos to beat St Helens by 11-20pts @ 10/3

You can't move in Super League circles right now such is the volume of Widnes Vikings and Leicester City comparisons, but the unlikely early pace setters have their work cut out for them away at Wigan, who haven't started too shabbily themselves. With the likes of Warrington and Saints also hot on their tales, this is what the salary cap was always intended to create: competitive rugby and unexpected results.

Between the games at Headingley and the Halliwell Jones, we'll see four more of the league's hopefuls come toe-to-toe, with the old guard battling it out in Yorkshire, and a couple of the up and comers fighting for supremacy in Cheshire on the same night. All six sides involved in our selection will want to be there or there abouts toward the end of the season, but with only four places going in the play-offs, it's going to be an almighty struggle along the way.

1 - Wigan Warriors to beat Widnes Vikings by +13pts @ 21/20
Thursday 17th March, 20:00
Live on SkySports

There aren't many better home sides in the division than Wigan, with the DW rarely the setting for any Warriors losses. With the surprise package Vikings coming to town tonight, Shaun Wane will be desperate for his side to stamp their authority on the upstarts and bring the back down to earth with a crash, before they get up too big a head of steam, and make those Leicester City comparisons look somewhat more accurate than they do at present.

The best attack meeting the best defence, this one could be as close as it looks on paper, but there's something about the intensity of this Wigan side that suggests otherwise. If the Vikings fail to covert their early pressure and pile on the points as they have done in previous rounds, Wigan will likely pick them off as the game goes on, just as they did against Leeds last time out. Like a boxer making an ill-advised step up in weight, this could be too big a bite for Widnes to chew, so expect the home side to kick on and put daylight between themselves and their opponents.

2 - Leeds Rhinos to beat St Helens by 11-20pts @ 10/3
Friday 18th March, 20:00
Live on SkySports

Quite a few people expected the Rhinos to be much better than they have been this season, but that seems a little unfair given what the club have gone through since their treble winning campaign ended. Losing some influential leaders bowing out of the game, the last thing they needed was an injury crisis, but that's exactly what presented itself. Patched together between players out of position and academy graduates, the performances have been improving, while the results have remained consistently poor.

That said, however, this Saints side can be got at, especially away from home. With injuries of their own to contend with, this might not be the highest quality game these two have ever played against one another. The key here lies in how fit the returning players are for the Rhinos, with skipper Danny McGuire fit for the first time since the opening night, and a whole host of other regular starters also finding their way back in to the match day squad after their own stretches on the sideline.

Should the Rhinos click back in to gear, they've more than enough to steamroller this Saints side at home, especially in front of what's looking to be a near capacity Headingley crowd. Leeds have a deeper bench, with players fresh and looking to prove themselves after a poor start - that should be more than enough to see them through this one fairly convincingly.

3 - Warrington Wolves to beat Castleford Tigers by 11-20pts @ 21/10
Friday 18th March, 20:00

There's an ongoing joke amongst other Super League fanbases that suggests Warrington are always the club most likely to incorrectly predict that it's going to be "our year". Having come close in the past without ever getting over the line completely, they've had to settle for League Leader's Shield and Challenge Cup victories in the absence of a championship. This season, however, Tony Smith looks to have built something with the right blend of youth and experience to make them extremely competitive.

Accused in the past of lacking a killer instinct in big games and the bottle for the play-offs, Smith has got in some old heads who've been there and done it to compliment the youth who've propelled the Wolves along in the past few years. Castleford, in a similar position after their own breakout season a couple of years back, have a lot to prove after a disappointing loss last time out. Both sides have had the tendency in the past to prioritise attacking rugby over solidity and defence, so the scoreboard could be kept quite busy ticking during this one.

You can't see this Cas defence being able to keep Warrington that quiet, although a shock isn't out of the question here either, if the Tigers find their feet early doors. Wire have attacked with more consistency and defended more diligently than Cas have so far this season, so backing another good home win shouldn't send us far wrong.