US Politics: Election to break records on Betfair Exchange

US President Donald Trump
Donald Trump's election odds have drifted

This year's presidential election is set to attract unprecedented betting activity as Donald Trump bids to win a second term and the Democrats try to oust him from the White House, reports Max Liu.

"So impressed are some Americans by Cuomo's actions that he's now being talked about as a late candidate for the Democratic nomination and is second in the betting at 28.027/1."

Over £50m has been bet on Betfair Exchange's US election markets as the world braces itself for what's likely to be one of the most ferocious contests in American political history.

There are still seventh months to go before Americans elect their president on 3 November but already Election 2020 is set to attract more money on the Exchange than any election before it.

In the next president market - where Donald Trump is trading at 2.0811/10 and Joe Biden is 2.447/5 - £23m has already been matched, compared to £7m at this stage in 2016.

Joe Biden gazes ahead 1280.jpg

The odds indicate that the 2020 election is likely to be close as Trump bids to win another term and the Democrats try to oust him from the White House. Four years ago, Trump stunned the world by upsetting the odds to defeat Hillary Clinton.

Since then he has courted controversy on a weekly basis, with his incendiary tweets, constant electioneering and unorthodox approach to holding office. He has survived impeachment proceedings and courted the wrath of millions of Americans. And yet it is still feasible that he will win again in November.

But the Democrats are determined to boot him out of office and will be encouraged to see that the incumbent's odds have drifted from 1.645/8 two months ago to his current price above evens.

Odds slashed on Cuomo making late White House bid

It's still not certain who Trump will face. The Democratic primaries have featured plenty of twists, with Bernie Sanders looking for a long time that he would be candidate who gets to take the fight to trump. Things changed last month, however, when Biden revivified his campaign with a string of impressive wins, including on the all-important Super Tuesday.

Now Biden, who was Barack Obama's vice president for eight years, is 1.171/6 to win the Democratic nomination.

That price suggests Biden's got the nomination wrapped up and, for several weeks, few American politicos would have disagreed with that. At his current odds, he should win but it's worth noting that he's drifted after touching an all-time low price of 1.071/14

The reason for the drift on Biden is that, once again, events are moving rapidly as the world faces an unprecedented crisis, and New York governor Andrew Cuomo is winning praise for the way he's responded to the coronavirus pandemic.

Andrew Cuomo 956.jpg

So impressed are some Americans by Cuomo's actions that he's now being talked about as a late candidate for the Democratic nomination and is second in the betting at 28.027/1.

In the next president market too Cuomo's price has shortened and he now trades at 42.041/1.

Meanwhile, the Democratic vice presidential nominee market has been buzzing for a few weeks, ever since Biden said he would pick a woman as his running mate.

Over £100,00 has been bet on Kamala Harris 3.3512/5 who leads a competitive field from Amy Klobuchar and Stacey Abrams 8.27/1. Harris clashed with Biden early in the campaign, when she was running for president, but she's since endorsed him and it is believed she would gladly serve as the 77-year-old's VP.

It is not tasteless to say that, with a candidate of Biden's age running for president, his choice of VP takes on added importance.

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2020 US Presidential Election: USA - Presidential Election 2020 (Next President)

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Tuesday 3 November, 10.00am

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