US Politics: Biden ends 2021 on low but 2024 favourite Trump has problems too

Max Liu
22 December 2021
3:00 min read

Biden has drifted in the next election odds while Trump is favourite to win in 2024

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The odds on US president Joe Biden winning a second term have drifted and Donald Trump is the favourite to make a comeback, but it could be that neither man runs in 2024, says Max Liu.

The Republicans are 1.454/9 to win a majority in the Senate and 1.141/7 to take control of the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections.

US president Joe Biden's first year in office is ending in frustration after a member of his own party prevented the administration from passing a key piece of legislation.

Biden is 5.95/1 to be re-elected at the next US presidential election in 2024 - a longer price than Donald Trump 4.67/2 who Biden defeated just over a year ago in the 2021 election.

The Democrat made a confident start to his first term in the White House but his fortunes unravelled around the time of the US's disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in the summer.

He hoped to end 2021 by signing the Build Back Better Act, a $1.75tn spending package that includes massive investments in healthcare and climate initiatives, and had the potential to put the Democrats on the course to victory in 2024.

But the bill has been thwarted by the Democratic senator Joe Manchin whose refusal to support it means it cannot pass at present. The administration is still hoping to find a way to get Build Back Better through but there is a sense that the president's problems are mounting and the Democrats' prospects at next year's midterm elections do not look promising.

The Republicans are 1.454/9 to win a majority in the Senate and 1.141/7 to take control of the House of Respresentatives next November.

There has long been speculation that Biden would not seek a second-term due to his age (he will be 81 when the next US presidential election takes place).

Kamala Harris 956.jpg

That could pave the way for vice presiednt Kamala Harris to be the Democratic nominee in 2024 but she has come in for plenty of criticism recently and is out to 9.617/2 in the next president betting.

Trump odds look short as problems mount

Trump has, as mentioned, been backed into favouritism to make a sensational return to the White House by winning in 2024. He would be the first ex-president to do so and the lack of historical precdent is one reason why the price looks short.

He is 2.3411/8 to be the Republican nominee in 2024 with Ron DeSantis 6.25/1 and Nikki Haley 10.519/2 his nearest rivals.

Trump won over 70 million votes last year when losing to Biden and retains considerable support.

However, the former-president appears increasingly agitated about the House select committee's investigation into the attack on the US Capitol on 6 January this year.

Trump is concerned that the investigation will implicate him in the attack and has hit out at former-aides who are co-operating with the committee. There is the potential for prosecutions depending on its findings.

If Trump is implicated in the attack that would damage his chances of winning his party's nomination for 2024. He will be 78 by the next election so age is a factor for him too as well as for Biden.

All of this means that, with Biden, Harris and Trump both facing difficulties, it could pay to look further down the market for a candidate to back in 2024.

DeSantis, Haley, former-VP Mike Pence 14.013/1 and even Ted Cruz 38.037/1 are promising Republicans while in the Democratic nominee betting Pete Buttigieg 13.012/1 and Elizabeth Warren 22.021/1 - both veterans of the 2020 primaries - are both potential runners.

There is still time for the Biden administration to reverse their fortunes and, whether Biden is the candidate or not, they are an appealing price at 2.226/5 to be the winning party in 2024.

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