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US Politics: Betfair rates Obama strong favourite

Betfair punters are keeping faith with Obama

Betfair’s sophisticated political betting customers still do not think Romney is doing enough to turn around a strong early Obama lead.

Latest Next President Odds
Barack Obama 1.4740/85
Mitt Romney 3.185/40


• Third debate sees Obama tick up 1pp to a 66% chance, Romney 34%
• Betfair customers suggest Romney is not doing enough to turn it around
• £9.3m now traded in the main 'Next President' market- and state-by-state markets starting to attract liquidity
• Obama strong favourite in Ohio and Iowa
• Betfair has seen 13 bets over £5000 matched on Obama in the last three weeks
• Highest individual bets- £20,000 matched on Obama in early October, £10,000 on Romney last week


The third Presidential debate has done little to change the Betfair market. Barack Obama ticked up 1pp after a messy foreign policy encounter which revealed more similarities than differences between the two sides.

On what was always seen as the safest ground for the incumbent, a subdued Mitt Romney seemed content to endorse much of the current Democrat foreign policy, with only subtle alterations.

Whilst the polls might justify this safety first approach from the Republican (consensus polls still place him slightly ahead in an even race)- Betfair's sophisticated political betting customers still do not think Romney is doing enough to turn around a strong early Obama lead.

They currently rate Obama as a strong 66% chance favourite (Betfair odds of 1.5, or 1-2 in traditional terms), with Romney continuing to trail as a 34% chance (2-1). Obama is also a strong favourite in the key swing states of Ohio and Iowa, whilst Virginia is extremely tight, currently falling just in favour of Romney.

The Betfair market, which has a strong track record of accurately predicting political outcomes, is showing far greater faith in Obama than most polls. Betfair Spokesperson James Midmer said: "Betfair's market, which rates Obama as a strong favourite, continues to disagree with consensus US polls, which place Romney ahead by a narrow margin. What is clear is that once again, the televised debates have provided a key opportunity to swing the momentum of a campaign. Romney has taken advantage to some extent, but the betting public currently do not think he is doing enough, either in the main race or in some of the key swing states."

Latest Next President Odds
Barack Obama 1.4740/85
Mitt Romney 3.185/40

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23 October 2012

US Politics

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