US Midterm Elections: The ten states that will determine which party controls the Senate

• Democrats and Republicans start tied 50/50
• Senate control revolves around four tight races
• Ten days out, Republicans have the momentum

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ARIZONA

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Democrat Mark Kelly takes on Republican Blake Masters in one of the most closely contested Senate races. Former US Navy pilot and astronaut Kelly was elected on the same day as Joe Biden in a special election following the death of former GOP Presidential candidate John McCain. If he loses, the Democrats have almost certainly lost control of the Senate.

Note, Kelly's 2.4% winning margin was eight times the 0.3% by which Biden defeated Trump in Arizona. Fellow Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won the 2018 Senate race here by a similar margin. For months, the incumbent has dominated the polls but Masters has significantly closed the gap since securing the GOP nomination.

A further worry for Kelly is that, in other races on the same ballot, Democrats are trailing. That includes the Governor's race between Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs, for which the former is rated 62% likely to win by Fivethirtyeight.

In other words, Kelly is likely relying on voters 'splitting their ticket'. Given that Masters, Lake and 2020 election denying Secretary of State candidate Mark Finchem are running extreme campaigns, ticket-splitting seems less likely than ever in what appears to be an extremely polarised state.

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COLORADO

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Here, Senator Michael Bennet is seeking a third term. If he loses to Republican Joe O'Dea, it would signal a truly catastrophic night for the Democrats - much worse than the already low expectations.

Bennet's second term was secured with a 5.6% margin, on the same day that Donald Trump was elected in 2016. Thus demonstrating how this once reliably red state had turned blue. Indeed, Biden won by a huge 13.5% margin. Bennet has also recorded several double-digit poll leads recently.

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FLORIDA

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Not so long ago, the world watched Florida intently, as a bellwether of US political opinion. That is no longer the case, with Republicans becoming increasingly dominant. Former Presidential candidate Marco Rubio appears certain to defeat Democrat Val Demings, at extremely prohibitive odds.

Demings is a relatively strong candidate - former Chief of Orlando police, married to the Mayor of Orange County and reportedly on Biden's shortlist for VP in 2020.

However this looks too big a task in the current climate. Trump defied the national trend here in 2020, beating Biden by a decisive 3.35% margin.

Also on the ballot, 2024 contender Ron DeSantis takes on Charlie Crist - once a Republican Governor, but then usurped by Rubio in a Senate bid and long since switched to the Democrats - for Governor.

Despite an underwhelming debate performance, RDS is similarly priced at very short odds for the win, but watch out for the margin. It may influence his viability for 2024 and taking on Trump for the Republican nomination.

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GEORGIA

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Former football star Hershel Walker bids to unseat Democrat Raphael Warnock in the most newsworthy race, and potentially the closest of these mid-terms. Georgia's run-off in 2020 determined Senate control and may very well do so again. On that occasion, Warnock won 51-49 against a scandal-damaged opponent.

As reported in the Politics Live blog, a spate of scandals looked to have derailed Walker - most notably paying for abortions for multiple women, despite his absolutist anti-abortion position. It hasn't, however, if polls are to be believed. Shades of the Access Hollywood tapes scandal which was assumed to finish Trump in 2016?

This is another race where the need for ticket-splitting presents a big problem for Democrats. In the Governor's race, Brian Kemp is expected to defeat Democrat darling Stacey Abrams by a bigger margin than he did in 2018. However one boost for the blue team may be the record levels of early voting. The word 'may' is important because predicting which side benefits from early voting is always fraught with danger.

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NEVADA

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Along with Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona, this is one of the four very close races that will surely determine Senate control. Democrats hold three and need to retain three. This may prove the hardest to do so.

Why? Well Nevada's economy was particularly hard-hit by Covid and the pandemic proved more politically divisive in the States than most Western democracies. Plus, while gas prices have fallen well below $4 nationally, offering some relief for Joe Biden, here they are at $5.

In this Senate race, former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt has eeked out a small lead in recent polls over incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto. Laxalt lost the 2018 Governor's race here and would be the first GOP winner of a Senate, Governor or Presidential race in the state since 2016. Likewise, Joe Lombardo in a similar toss-up contest for Governor against the Democrat's Steve Sisolak.

Elections here are always tight and invariably hinge on turnout among the large Hispanic population, which has leaned strongly Democrat in the past. The Culinary Workers Union are highly influential at getting out the vote, and Cortez Masto urgently needs them to deliver once again.

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NEW HAMPSHIRE

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This is another Democrat-held seat which they are expected to win, but for which slight doubts have begun to appear. If losing it, the Senate is gone and expect a Red Wave in the House.

Maggie Hassan is the incumbent, facing US Army Special Forces Brigadier General Don Bolduc for the Republicans. Hassan only won the seat by a tiny 1017 votes, so it would be wrong to define New Hampshire as a solidly blue state. Indeed her GOP predecessor won by a whopping 24% in 2010.

At the 2020 Presidential Election, however, Biden beat Trump by 7.35% - significantly higher than the national margin. There is a strong suspicion that, whereas a far-Right, populist Republican Party fares better in the Mid-West and Rust Belt, that is not the case in New England. Bolduc is very much a Trumpian, election-denying type.

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NORTH CAROLINA

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North Carolina is an open seat, following the retirement of Republican Richard Burr won three times, by comfortable margins, most recently 5.7% in 2016. In the Senate race in 2020, though, Thom Tillis' margin was much smaller, and so too Trump's over Biden, at 1.8 and 1.3% respectively.

The state has become more marginal, but Republicans clearly still hold the edge so, in the current climate where Democrats are struggling to perform at the levels seen during the Trump-era in 2020 and 2018, gaining this seat is a huge ask.

The candidates are Congressman Ted Budd for the GOP and former state supreme court justice Cheri Beasley.

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OHIO

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Once a purple state, regarded a bellwether at presidential elections, Ohio has turned deep red during the Trump era. However despite generally a gloomy outlook elsewhere, the Democrats do retain faint hopes of producing a big upset here.

That is due to the candidates. J.D. Vance is bankrolled heavily by overtly far-Right PayPal founder Peter Theil, but has alienated many conservatives in the state and is struggling to attract a wider donor base. Tim Ryan, alternatively, is an Ohio Congressman and appeals to white working-class voters in a way few other Democrats can.

In that sense, Ryan seeks to emulate the other Ohio Senator, Sherrod Brown, who easily defied the pro-Republican trends in this state to win a third term in 2018. Joe Biden has a not dissimilar brand and the President is trying to rebrand the Rust Belt as 'Silicon Heartland', thanks to a bill injecting $52BN into semi-conductor industry. Ohio is a big recipient.

If you're looking for an outsider bet on the Democrats at big odds, this is the one.

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PENNSYLVANIA

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As the last two Presidential elections demonstrated, Pennsylvania is now the key, bellwether state in US politics. And so this race between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz may prove again. It is an open seat, following the retirement of Republican Pat Toomey. Gain it, and the Democrats have a strong chance of retaining Senate control, as the GOP would therefore need to gain two others from them.

For months, that looked likely. Their candidate for Governor, Josh Shapiro, is well ahead of Doug Mastriano. Plus the TV celebrity 'Dr Oz' has a very low approval rating in the state, having been plagued by negative revelations. Not least that he lived in a different state until very recently, and has deep ties to the Turkish government. Even last week, going into their TV debate, 37% of Republican voters said Oz didn't understand the state's issues.

That debate, however, proved catastrophic for Fetterman. He suffered a stroke just after winning his party's nomination and had kept public appearances to a minimum, while Oz's well-financed campaign had derided his cognitive decline and speech problems. On the debate stage, it seemed clear that Fetterman was indeed struggling badly, regardless of a physician's note declaring that he was recovering well.

It seems the Democrats have made a huge mistake by not replacing him. Fetterman still retains hope from the fact he has a big profile in the state as former Lieutenant Governor, his opponent's own weaknesses and strong early voting, prior to the debate. Momentum, nevertheless, has definitely switched.

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WISCONSIN

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Is there a more 'purple' state than Wisconsin? Biden won it by 0.67% in 2020. Trump by 0.77% in 2016. The Governor is a Democrat, while the two Senate seats are shared between the two parties, each of whom has won two terms already.

The Republican Senator Ron Johnson is on this year's ballot against Mandela Barnes, the state's former Lieutenant Governor. Earlier in the cycle, Democrats were hopeful of an upset but that has somewhat dissipated. The DNC haven't poured vast resources into Barnes campaign.

The recent history of this state implies great enthusiasm on the GOP side for a far-Right populist, and election-denier Johnson is in that vein. Former Governor Scott Walker pioneered that strategy long before Trump.

It is highly questionable that picking a black, self-professed socialist, was a smart move from the Democrats in a state consisting largely of very white, rural counties. Note too, Wisconsin was a state where polls in the last two Presidential elections wildly overestimated the Democrats.

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