US Politics

Betfair Predicts: Our graphs show how debate could not have gone better for Harris

US presidential candidate Kamala Harris in the debate on 10 September
Kamala Harris is the odds-on favourite to win the US election

The US presidential debate sparked a huge night on the Betfair Exchange and the Betfair Predicts graphs show Kamala Harris is now the favourite to win the election...


Every Betfair Predicts graph shows that Kamala Harris enjoyed a brilliant debate against Donald Trump on a night when the election odds flipped and she took a giant step towards winning the White House.

There is still a long way to go before 5 November, when Americans will go to the polls, but if the question before the debate, was about whether Harris could score a decisive debate victory, the answer was emphatically, yes she could.

Harris is 1.9420/21 favourite to win the election and Trump is 2.1211/10 - an almost exact reversal of where their odds were 24 hours ago - after a 90-minute debate which make mark a turning point in the election campaign.

Betfair Predicts US election swing-o-meter

The swing-o-meter is still in too close to call territory which shows that the election will still be tight. That means that any movement in the odds is significant and worth following on the Betfair Exchange.

For all that it remains close, however, the dial shifted dramatically in favour of Harris during and after last night's debate.

Betfair Predicts Race for the White House

The race is tight but it has a new leader. You can see from the Betfair Predicts US election race graph how Harris overtook Trump after the debate. Further back, this graph tells the story of the campaign over the past six months, after Joe Biden fell and Harris became Trump's rival for the White House. Some viewers said last night was as damaging for Trump as the June debate was for Biden.

We could still be in for a photo finish come 5 November but it will be fascinating to see how the two candidates react to last night's debate. Will Harris build on her momentum and pull away? Or can Trump regain the lead?

Betfair Predicts US election state map

Most experts agree that there are seven swing states that will decide the outcome of the US election so the Betfair Predicts state map is a brilliant way to monitor the states of play there. The seven are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

What does the map tell us about how bettors reacted to last night's debate? Well, Pennsylvania, which has 19 crucial electoral college votes and is the one both campaigns desperately want to win, has turned from Republican red to Democratic blue.

Betfair Predicts US election doughnut

Finally, Harris has the biggest bite of the Betfair Predicts US election donut. She certainly ate into Trump's lead, if the odds are to be believed, and then some.

Our US election betting expert Paul Krishnamurty said beforehand that the debate was an opportunity for Harris to define herself. She certainly did that as well as exposing Trump's lies and provoking him on the crowd sizes at his rallies. In fact, the only thing Trump bit into last night was the bait that his opponent offered him.


Now read Paul Krishnamurty's Debate Reaction: Disastrous performance from Trump leaves him trailing Harris


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